Polls show that American confidence is the most important issue of the 2024 election, and that it falls into President Trump's ability to deal with the economy, which probably brought him to his second presidential term.
Concerns about affordability, employment and inflation place emphasis on Trump's economic recognition assessment for flashing economic warning signs, including backgrounds that stir consumer sentiment and negative forecasts from the federal government of Atlanta for first quarter GDP growth.
According to Gallup Polling in February, 42% of Americans have given thumbs to Trump's economic management, and 54% have given thumbs down to him.
Trump's approval of economic handling fell to 39% from 43% in the vote announced last week by Reuters/Ipsos.
This is a particularly low mark compared to the start of Trump's first term in 2017, when his economic approval reached 53%. This may reflect less enthusiasm for the economy more generally, but it is also worth noting that they monitor the presidential team.
Trump is far ahead of former economic president Biden. Biden resigned with 34% approval for the economy after overseeing the highest inflation in 40 years during the course of his presidency.
In the economy, some polls show that Americans are concerned about direction.
A poll released by Reuters/Ipsos this week shows that 44% of Americans believe their employment and job situations are heading in the wrong direction.
The same poll found 53% believe the economy is on the wrong track. And while a whopping 64% believe their cost of living is getting worse, only 20% believe it's getting better.
On a macro level, new concerns emerged on Friday about the general direction of the economy.
Atlanta Fed's real-time GDP forecast predicted negative 1.5% growth in the first quarter. This is far worse than last week, when we predicted positive growth of 2.3% in the first quarter. A month ago, it had grown at 3.9%.
Trump's tariffs have prompted some economic concerns. Most of Trump's threatened tariffs have not been imposed so far, but more will be coming out in the coming weeks.
“There is early evidence that current policy uncertainty is affecting consumer and business trust,” Francis Jared and others wrote to Deutsche Bank in an investor note on Thursday. “Current policy sequences could increase market pricing risks of recession.”
As measured at the University of Michigan, consumer sentiment fell off the cliff in February, slipping nearly 10% from reading in January, and nearly 16% from a year ago.
The survey's annual inflation forecast increased from 3.3% in January to 4.3% this month, the highest reading since November 2023.
Trump has acknowledged a recent increase in inflation, which has pinned the Fed's schedule for stimulating interest rate cuts. Trump was also able to keep his distance quickly.
“Inflation is back. No, think about it: the back of inflation,” Trump told the Fox News Channel Television Network earlier this month. “And they said, 'Oh, Trump,' and I had nothing to do with it. ”
A big pillar of Trump's economic plan this year is extending his 2017 tax cuts and adding them. Trump has pledged to end the tip tax and, among other things, end the overtime tax.
But there is a question of how popular tax cuts are.
56% of Americans approved the tax cut when they first signed the law, but only 29% were approved. Gallup Poling Since 2018.
That margin fell slightly in the following years, shrinking to 46% disapproval and 39% approval, but remained in negative territory overall.
Democrats seeking to return to power want to use GOP's tax system against Republicans, even if they attack a majority for potential Medicaid cuts.
“[Republicans] They want something that is very unpopular with the public. That's great for very wealthy people [and] Although they are high-income people, for the average family, what they suggest is not a good taste,” Sen. Stephen Lynch (D-Mass.) told Hill in January.
