As the saying goes, a houseguest and fish starts to smell after three days. However, the former president, who is currently in Washington, D.C., will soon undergo scrutiny.
In the history of the Republic, former presidents typically left town to avoid criticism from their successors. The only exceptions seem to be Woodrow Wilson and Barack Obama. Wilson can be excused due to being bedridden and passing away three years later. Obama, however, has no valid excuses.
Obama is not particularly known for stepping out of the spotlight. During his second term, instead of focusing on building up the Democrats, he created his own political organization. Although he raised millions and diverted resources, the effort was seen as a display of political savvy, but ultimately paved the way for Trump’s election.
Obama never seems to acknowledge this reality.
Trump’s election was significantly influenced by disenchanted Obama supporters. A comparison of 2012 and 2016 reflects this through the exit polls and county results indicating dissatisfaction. Many of Obama’s voters defected to Trump, discontented with Obama’s chosen successor, Hillary Clinton.
In the gap between the 2012 and 2016 elections, Clinton dropped nearly three points in the popular vote from Obama, while Trump fell just one point compared to Mitt Romney. Among voters with household incomes below $100,000, Trump surpassed Romney by one point, while Clinton dropped five points. Trump also gained two points with union voters, while Clinton fell by seven points.
Significantly, Trump increased his support by five points among voters without a high school diploma, while Clinton’s support decreased by seven points.
Younger voters have also distanced themselves from Democratic ballots. While Trump didn’t improve on Romney’s figures among the youngest demographic, Clinton experienced a drop of five points from Obama’s 2012 performance.
If Clinton, who enjoyed Obama’s early endorsement and campaigned on his policies, had maintained more support among these defectors.
After four years of Trump, when Obama’s former vice president Joe Biden (along with an administration filled with Obama loyalists) was elected, many former Obama voters turned away from the Democratic Party. From the 2024 exit polls, it is evident that Trump garnered 45% of union households, an increase of five points. Trump achieved 51% support from households earning below $100,000 (an increase of 8 points) and 62% from individuals without a high school education (up 16 points).
What happened to the “Youth Vote” that Obama thought he had? He had a special relationship with them, but the 18-29 age group in 2012 is now aged 30-44. This cohort had supported Obama more than 13 points in 2012, but only barely managed a 4 point lead with Kamala Harris. Essentially, Trump has gained 10 points among the demographic that was once aligned with Obama.
It’s challenging to discern Obama’s true thoughts. He remains controlled and gives only flattering interviews without revealing his genuine interests. However, his actions suggest a disconnect from reality, showcasing an inflated sense of his own abilities.
Obama’s management of Joe Biden’s decline showcases a lack of political acumen. In an interview concerning their new book, Battle: In the Wildest Battles for the White House, the authors Amie Parnes and Jonathan Allen depict a troubling portrayal of the former president.
As noted by Parnes and Allen, Obama initiated a passive campaign for Kamala Harris despite only a small segment of the early primaries hoping he could steer it. However, opinion and political realities differ. Attempting to sideline Harris appears misguided (an idea that should have been abandoned long ago).
From the moment she assumed office as vice president, Harris became a likely contender for the next presidential nomination. The notion that she could transition into a more prominent role (especially as the first Black woman in such a position) seemed unrealistic. Only if Harris aligned herself with Obama’s views could there be hope for that, but would she do so?
While she may not be a stellar politician, the Democratic Party lacks an extensive roster of strong candidates. Parnes and Allen suggest that Obama believed the next ticket could feature Arizona Sen. Mark Kelly and Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer. He seemed to assume these newer and less experienced politicians would effortlessly overshadow Harris and seize the nomination.
The very fact that Harris, perceived as mediocre, managed to forge her path indicates the fragility of such alternatives.
Attempts to replace Harris might demonstrate Obama’s diminishing influence within the Democratic Party. Despite significant media scrutiny and political establishment disdain, Kamala Harris is now a key player in the Democratic Party. She stands as a favorite for the 2028 nomination.
Harris currently enjoys strong voter support, with near-total recognition among Democrats, and an 82% approval rating among liberal voters (80% among Democrats), putting her ahead of potential challengers. Additionally, she possesses a justified rationale for any losses in 2024, attributing them to Biden’s failures.
Harris is expected to lead Democratic primary polls into the first 2028 competition. If she gains traction and secures the nomination, she could collaborate with Obama for a win, but if successful, the team may sideline him.
While Obama maintains a positive image compared to previous presidents, his popularity seems rooted in nostalgia. It’s clear that he has lost touch with the current political climate. The time has passed for Obama to pack his bags and exit the scene.
Keith Norton is a co-founder of Silent Majority Strategy, a consulting firm specialized in public and regulatory affairs, and a former political consultant in Pennsylvania.
