The Republican tax component of a comprehensive bill, reflecting many of President Trump’s domestic priorities, is projected to cost $3.7 trillion over the coming decade, according to the Tax Commission (JCT).
This figure aligns with the budget framework that Congress approved earlier this year, which permits the House Ways and Means Committee to propose changes up to $4.5 trillion that could add to the deficit.
A JCT assessment shows that the tax cuts from 2017, along with other initiatives, are expected to contribute approximately $5 trillion to the deficit, while also lowering the deficit by promoting renewable energy incentives and enhancing international tax compliance efforts.
Although the JCT score does not include projections for the proposed Medicaid payment restrictions from Republicans, it mentions that such estimates will be provided by the Congressional Budget Office (CBO).
The scores released ahead of Tuesday’s committee meeting are tied to JCT Chief of Staff Thomas Bassoldo, based on the current law’s baseline for January 2025.
The projected increase in the deficit has raised concerns among Republicans, though some members claim they are ready to engage in discussions about it.
“I’m open to negotiations as we’ve made some progress in pushing for change,” Senator Chip Roy noted on social media Monday. “However, we can’t continue along the current path; significant changes are necessary for my support.”
A key aspect of the GOP tax proposal involves extending the individual tax rates set in 2017, which range from 10% to 37%, most of which were slightly reduced.
Maintaining these rates is expected to decrease federal revenues by $2.2 trillion by 2034.
Additionally, an extension of the standard deduction—set at $29,200 for married couples and $14,600 for individual filers in 2024—will add $1.3 trillion to the deficit. However, Trump’s tax reforms also eliminated individual exemptions, helping to balance the increased standard deduction with $1.8 trillion in federal revenues through 2034.
Another significant item in the JCT score is the proposed expansion of the alternative minimum duty-free provision, which could further reduce revenue by $1.4 trillion.
Extending the enhancements made to the Child Tax Credit (CTC) in 2017 may cost nearly $800 billion, while bolstering the pass-through business deduction is estimated to add around $700 billion.
While Trump’s campaign tax cuts are slated to expire at the end of 2028, they remain part of the bill’s provisions.
Temporarily eliminating the tip tax would incur a cost of $40 billion, while overtime tax adjustments would add up to $124 billion. Strengthening the deduction for seniors could amount to $71 billion, and taxing car loan interest would add $57 billion.
On the revenue side, revisions to the earned income tax credit are projected to generate an additional $15 billion for the government, and increased international tax enforcement could bring in $116 billion.
The Democratic Inflation Reduction Act includes several modifications and expansions of clean energy credits, which could bolster revenues as well—projecting $78 billion from ending clean vehicle credits, $104 billion from commercial vehicle credits, and $154 billion from canceling clean power investment credits.
