Juan Soto is the second player in a lengthy 15-year, $765 million contract signed by future Hall of Fame outfielders, both of whom are now with the New York Mets. Unfortunately, the outlook isn’t particularly bright.
This week’s buzz centers around:
Soto seems to be sulking as he struggles to replicate his impressive 2024 season in the Bronx. The 26-year-old’s performance has sharply declined in 2025, which is concerning, though, I suppose, not unusual for your average ballplayer.
In 48 games (214 plate appearances), Soto has a batting line of .247/.379/.437, resulting in an OPS of .815, a WRC+ of 132, along with eight home runs and 20 RBIs. He started the season with 8.1 fWAR, but that number has plummeted to just 1.1 now. Anyone watching can see that something doesn’t quite add up.
As noted by Yes Network’s Michael Kay, it seems part of Soto’s concern may stem from a desire to return to the Yankees, where he had previously shined in pre-season discussions.
“Why isn’t he content? Well, I think it’s pretty clear. I know it’s been denied, but I’ve heard from reputable sources that he really wanted to go back to the Yankees,” Kay mentioned. “His family was comfortable with the idea of moving to the Mets, especially around Alex and Steve Cohen, and, honestly, he tends to listen to them.”
Bob Klapisch from NJ.com highlighted worries about Soto’s lack of enthusiasm for his new team, suggesting that the situation resembles a classic chicken-and-egg dilemma. Would he be happier if his performance was better? Or does the disappointment he feels about not being with the Yankees affect his gameplay?
The media in New York certainly isn’t shy about making their opinions known, but, at the end of the day, stats are what really tell the story. Soto’s plate discipline remains relatively steady, boasting a walk rate of 17.8% and a strikeout rate of 15.9%. His current .247 batting average falls well below his career norm of .283, yet a .379 on-base percentage reflects that he could be getting more hits.
Interestingly, his line drive rate has dipped from 20.4% last season to 17.7% this year, but it’s not out of line with his past seasons, fluctuating between 16.2% and 16.6%. He’s hitting more grounders (51.1%) compared to last year (43.6%), but, then again, this echoes trends from years like 2020 and 2021. At Yankee Stadium, he had a pull rate of 45.1% last year, which was unusual for him; this year’s figure of 38.7% aligns better with his career average of 38.1%.
According to Statcast data, he still ranks among the league leaders in several metrics, indicating that his situation might not be as dire as it appears.
It’s probably unrealistic to expect him to replicate last year’s extraordinary performance. Back then, he was absolutely elite, ranking in the 98th-100th percentile across metrics like XWOBA and XBA. Strikingly, his platoon splits have shifted, showing a .953 OPS against left-handed pitchers while only reaching .772 against righties. This probably isn’t a trend that will persist.
One aspect worth noting is his bat speed. Last year, he recorded bat speeds in the 94th percentile (75.4 mph), but this year, he’s dropped to the 72nd percentile (73.3 mph). At his age, it seems unlikely that he’s losing bat speed simply due to age, so something else must be affecting that number.
For those who might forget, adapting to a new environment can take time. When Soto moved from the Nationals to the Padres in 2022, he had a tough start, hitting only .236/.388/.390 in his first 52 games with San Diego. However, he rebounded famously in the postseason, showcasing his talent and helping the Padres reach the League Championship Series with a much improved performance.
In a high-pressure market like New York, expectations can certainly weigh heavily on a player, especially after signing a monumental contract. Perhaps the pressure is contributing to his current struggles. Yet, there really isn’t much evidence to suggest he can’t thrive in a large market or under intense scrutiny.
After all, he excelled in New York last season. His postseason stats are impressive: .281/.389/.538 with a .927 OPS across 43 playoff games. He even posted a 1.373 OPS in the ALCS against Cleveland and maintained an impressive 1.084 in five games against the Dodgers, not to mention his national championship performance in 2019 with an OPS of 1.178 against the Astros.
So, what’s really going on with Soto? It seems to have less to do with the pressures of playing under a spotlight, especially in New York, and more to do with an off year. While it’s hard to predict the future, one has to wonder if 2025 might be a bit of a hiccup for someone who rarely experiences such setbacks.
