President Trump unexpectedly left the G-7 summit in Alberta, Canada last night. Officially, he cited the need to address the Israeli-Iran conflict, but it also seems like it could have stirred up some drama.
Israel has made significant strides in its ongoing conflict with Iran, including targeting nuclear facilities and ballistic missile sites, along with executing high-profile assassinations of key Iranian military figures and scientists. They’ve established an uncontested air route around Tehran, even hitting Iranian provincial television during a live broadcast yesterday.
Since the conflict escalated, Iran’s air defense hasn’t been particularly effective, indicating that the strike from October 2024 may have had a greater impact than initially thought. Mimicking Ukraine’s recent drone strikes from within Russia, Israel started a drone campaign targeting major Iranian bases and defenses beginning June 12.
Iran’s response with missile strikes has so far been somewhat lacking. While they typically launch 30 to 50 ballistic missiles simultaneously, Israeli air defenses have managed to counter them effectively. Notably, yesterday, over 20 missiles made their way into Central Israel. To this point, at least 24 civilians have lost their lives, with hundreds more injured, and around 15,000 homes have been damaged—an upsetting reality for many Israelis.
Israel claims to have neutralized a third of Iran’s missile launchers, but if Iran is capable of launching more than 100 missiles in one go, it could easily overwhelm Israeli defenses and escalate the situation dramatically.
The damage inflicted on Iran has been substantial, yet it has also sparked a downturn in Iranian influence across the region. The so-called “axis of resistance” is showing signs of vulnerability, with even the Houthis remaining inactive in support of Iran.
Regrettably, as seen in Gaza, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu hasn’t demonstrated a clear strategy for ending the conflict. Talk of prolonged warfare raises significant concerns in Israel.
In order to prevent major casualties or further Iranian attacks—perhaps on Saudi oil fields or US interests—Trump ought to compel Netanyahu to cease uranium enrichment and declare a sort of victory by allowing a tight timeline for the International Atomic Energy Agency to dismantle Iran’s nuclear program.
This course of action would likely be welcomed by European nations, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Jordan, and Egypt.
As a “carrot” for Iranian cooperation, the US could assure them that a refusal to dismantle their nuclear program might result in a targeted strike on the Ford enrichment facility. This site, known as one of Iran’s most fortified nuclear facilities, is buried deep underground and has thus far escaped Israeli attacks.
If Iran agrees to dismantle its nuclear program, the next logical step could involve pushing for a change in government.
Now would truly be the right moment for Trump to take decisive action.
