Democrats are understandably concerned about the party’s leftward shift, particularly in light of Zohran Mamdani’s unexpected win in the New York City mayoral primary.
New data from the Pew Research Institute indicates that the party may already be out of step with the majority of American voters.
Pew conducts biennial verified voter surveys, which are a reliable means of assessing what transpired in previous elections, as their results are linked to actual voter records across states.
They only consider responses from individuals who have proven to have voted.
The main findings seem to align with much of the media coverage, supported by preliminary research from Catalyst, which analyzed exit polls from the 2024 election and other relevant data.
Pew’s analysis shows, much like other reports, that Democrats have gained support from male, Hispanic, and other non-white voters, with Kamala Harris now in the presidency.
Specifically, Pew notes a significant decline in party support among men, especially non-white men.
Trump’s lead among white men increased by three percentage points from 17% in 2020 to 20% in 2024.
While that’s a notable uptick, it doesn’t fully clarify the 4.5% drop in 2020, followed by a 1.5% gain in 2024.
Instead, Trump’s appeal among non-white men proved pivotal.
He reduced his loss among Black men from 75 points in 2020 to just 54 points in 2024, a gain of 21 points.
In addition, he managed to win Hispanic men by two points, a significant improvement from an 18-point loss in 2020.
His support also grew among Asian voters, achieving a 23-point improvement, and 29 points among voters of other races.
Some progressives might see Mamdani’s strong performance in Hispanic and Asian areas as evidence that economic populism resonates with these voters.
However, it’s important to note that Mamdani’s appeal came primarily from Democratic voters and those further left than most Americans.
Progressive Sen. Bernie Sanders had previously performed well among Hispanic voters during the 2020 Democratic Super Tuesday primaries.
That success did not prevent a noticeable shift to the right among Hispanic voters in the general election later that year.
Still, the challenges for Democrats should not be underestimated.
Pew’s findings reveal minimal change in partisan support between 2020 and 2024.
Harris won by 89 points among Democrats and independents who lean Democratic, which is just a shade less than Biden’s 90-point victory in 2020.
Conversely, Trump garnered 86 points from Republicans and GOP-leaning independents, slightly down from 87 points four years earlier.
These groups made up almost all voters in both election years—99% in 2024 and 97% in 2020.
Thus, based on voter composition from 2020, Harris should have secured an easy win.
Yet, that didn’t happen.
Republicans and those leaning GOP represented 51% of the total votes in 2024, an increase from 47% in 2020, while Democrats and their affiliates dropped from 50% to 48%.
This six-point shift in party balance mirrors a similar six-point boost in Trump’s approval ratings.
In essence, Trump didn’t just rely on his supporters; he managed to attract former Democrats and independents, which fundamentally changed the electoral landscape.
This marks a notable historical moment.
For the first time in decades, the partisan identification polls show more Republicans than Democrats participating.
2024 may well be the first presidential election since at least 1932 where a greater number of voters identified as Republicans.
Democrats are grappling with how to campaign effectively in this environment.
For nearly a century, winning often meant consolidating their base and swaying independents.
Harris attempted this and still came up short.
Historically, Republicans have adjusted to challenging terrains by appealing to Democratic voters, assuring them they wouldn’t undermine social welfare programs.
This approach frustrated hardline conservatives, but it was deemed necessary for electoral success.
Now Democrats face the need to demonstrate support for Republican-leaning themes, focusing on racial neutrality and economic growth over initiatives like the Green New Deal.
Harris hasn’t succeeded in this regard, and progressive candidates like Mamdani risk reinforcing their uphill battle by pushing policies that many former Democratic voters have rejected.
The future of a presidency is always critical, and, maybe, Trump’s strategies could backfire.
If they do, it might offer some respite for the Democrats.
But without significant shifts, they’ll have to confront the reality that the political landscape is swiftly evolving away from what their core supporters desire.
In that context, Mamdani’s win on the left suggests that it’s not just Democrats who should be feeling uneasy.
