A recent analysis indicates that President Trump’s extensive tax and spending plan might expedite the bankruptcy of the Social Security Trust Funds, according to the chief actuary overseeing the program.
The Office of the Chief Actuary (OACT) of the Social Security Agency (SSA) released this report in response to a request from Sen. Ron Wyden (Ore), a leading Democrat on the Senate Finance Committee.
The findings suggest that implementing this major legislation will likely raise net program costs, particularly in light of recent tax adjustments included in the packages.
“Since income from taxes on Social Security benefits is funneled into the Social Security and Medicare Trust Funds, the enactment of the OBBBA is expected to significantly affect the financial health of the Social Security Trust Fund,” the report explains.
Recent modifications to tax regulations have led to projections of combined depletion for both old age insurance, survivors’ insurance (OASI), and disability insurance (DI) trust funds.
Focusing specifically on the OASI Trust Fund, the analysis suggests that the date for reserve exhaustion could shift from the beginning of 2033 to the end of 2032.
Nonetheless, discussions on program solvency typically consider these accounts together, especially since lawmakers have permitted borrowing between them to momentarily extend solvency.
The analysis forecasts that the total expenses for the OASDI program might rise to $168.6 billion by 2034, as it anticipates decreasing tax revenues affecting Social Security benefits starting this year.
A request for comments was made to the White House.
Moreover, the actuary projected that this law’s enactment might lead to a slight improvement—specifically a 0.16% deterioration in taxable salaries—of the 1975 OASDI actuarial balance.
The analysis also clarifies that its focus is restricted to the consequences of income tax changes and how these influence the taxation of benefits income on the trust funds.
Additionally, they mentioned that the results will serve as an updated reference point for evaluating proposals impacting the OASI and DI Trust funds, especially those aimed at enhancing long-term solvency.
“The 2026 Trustee Report reflects the most current data, assumptions, and methodologies used in its development, along with considerations for understanding the effectiveness of the OBBBA,” the analysis concluded.
