A new poll finds the cost of living is defining the 2024 presidential election, with voters in battleground states backing former President Donald Trump and prioritizing the economy over abortion, Democratic President Joe Biden’s top campaign promise.
Swing States Project Report release On Friday, a joint poll from the Cook Political Report, GS Strategy Group (a Republican pollster) and BSG (a Democratic pollster) found that the economy is ultimately outpacing changes in the nation’s abortion landscape heading into November. The project surveyed 3,969 voters in seven battleground states from May 6 to May 13.
“Right now, this election is about President Biden’s economic record and the future of America’s economy,” said Greg Strimple, president of GS Strategies. “Trump is in the lead when it comes to who voters trust to move the economy forward.”
The survey found that while abortion remains a galvanizing issue for Democrats, “Biden’s advantage on the issue is not strong enough to offset Trump’s overall strength on cost-of-living measures.”
“Voters clearly see the major setbacks that a Trump presidency would bring. They’re pessimistic about what he’ll do on abortion rights, progress on climate change and even his failure to protect Medicare and Social Security,” said Lindsay Vermeyen, a partner at BSG. “But their economic discontent is enough to outweigh all of that.”
When voters were asked whether they were more worried about Biden’s economic policies or Trump’s abortion policies, 55% said they were more worried about Biden’s economic policies than Trump’s potential abortion policies (45%). Only Democrats and college-educated women were more worried about Trump’s abortion policies than Biden’s economic policies, according to the survey.
Battleground state voters are also more concerned about Biden’s immigration policies (53%) than Trump’s abortion policies (47%).
These results come despite the fact that Trump believes abortion should be left to the states, and despite a majority of voters (55%) saying they think there is at least some chance that Trump would restrict abortion at the federal level.
“In other words, these voters are not ignorant about the risks of accessing reproductive health care, but they cite rising costs as their greatest concern,” the survey report said.
73% of all respondents listed inflation/cost of living as one of their top three issues, followed by 52% who listed immigration/border security. Only 35% said the same about abortion/reproductive rights. Notably, abortion ranked third among female respondents (inflation 73%, immigration 48%, abortion 42%). Among independents, abortion ranked fourth, according to the survey.
The report found that voters in battleground states trust Biden by 14 points on the issue of abortion, but that Trump has a “2 to 1” advantage over Biden on inflation and immigration.
“It can’t be emphasized enough that cost of living is a top concern for voters today,” said Patrick Toomey, partner at BSG.
Voters are primarily concerned with the cost of living (54%) over other factors, with 51% saying inflation is currently the “worst/weakest” part of the economy. Voters blame Biden for rising prices and inflation (59%), which “helps explain why Biden’s approval rating on the economy is so low at minus 20 (40% approve, 60% disapprove),” the survey said.
At the same time, 62 percent of respondents approve of the way Trump has handled economic policy during his presidency.
Former U.S. President Donald Trump speaks during a campaign rally at the Schnecksville Fire Station in Schnecksville, Pennsylvania, Saturday, April 13, 2024. (Hannah Beyer/Bloomberg via Getty)
“More ominously for Biden, 78% believe inflation would likely remain a problem in a second term for Biden, while only 40% believe he would be able to bring prices down,” the survey said. “Voters are much more optimistic about Trump’s ability to bring prices down, with 56% believing he could control the cost of living if elected to a second term.”
The survey found that in the seven battleground states (Wisconsin, North Carolina, Nevada, Arizona, Georgia, Michigan and Pennsylvania), Trump leads Biden in a head-to-head race, 47% to 44%.
Looking at the battleground states, Trump is leading Biden in every state except Wisconsin, where the two are tied at 45% in both states.
“Trump’s leads are largest in North Carolina (+7) and Nevada (+9). His leads in Arizona, Georgia, Michigan and Pennsylvania are much narrower, ranging from 1-3 points. Biden won all of these states except North Carolina in 2020,” the report noted.
Katherine Hamilton is a political reporter for Breitbart News. You can follow her on X. Follow.
