Treasury Secretary’s Warning on Iran’s Oil Supply

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent cautioned on Sunday that Iran will soon run out of oil to trade, possibly within two weeks, as its remaining supply is sent to China. He claims that the economic pressure from the Trump administration has nearly crippled Tehran, pushing the regime to pursue negotiations.

Bessent noted that only about 15 million barrels of Iranian oil are left in transit, amidst ongoing U.S. restrictions on Iranian oil exports, which means Tehran is almost out of one of its key revenue streams.

Speaking with Larry Kudlow from Fox News on the program Sunday Morning Futures, Bessent expressed confidence in Iran’s impending loss of trading capability, stating, “I am confident, given that there are only 15 million more barrels of Iranian oil on the water, that Iran will have nothing left to trade for anything.” He estimated this situation to unfold within about two weeks.

“Probably within the next two weeks, they are going to make their final deliveries of oil to China, and then they will have nothing,” he added. “It is an empty set, and I believe they are feeling the pressure here and that’s why they want a deal.”

This assessment aligns with President Donald Trump’s recent rejection of Tehran’s latest proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, indicating that discussions might still occur this week. Trump mentioned that Iran seems to be seeking terms that the U.S. might have agreed to prior to the conflict.

Trump commented, “They want to make a deal, but it is not the deal that I want to make. It is what we would have maybe agreed to a year ago. They overplayed their hand.”

Bessent explained that the shifting dynamics in the Strait of Hormuz were evident, downplaying Iran’s offer to reopen the waterway, suggesting it was a minimal concession when millions of barrels from other nations are already transported through it under U.S. protection.

“The straits are open,” he declared, highlighting that despite Iranian oil being blocked, oil flow has been maintained at 15 to 22 million barrels per day—similar to pre-conflict levels of around 20 million.

Bessent portrayed this scenario as indicative of who controls the oil flow, stating, “Think of it this way: the score is United States, one billion — more than one billion barrels have gotten out — and Iran, zero.”

The blockade has been reinforced by Operation Economic Outcast, an extensive financial strategy launched by Bessent in late August to cut off Iran’s economic avenues and isolate the regime from the global financial system.

The operation has reached beyond Iran’s borders as Treasury officials have engaged with over 50 nations, urging banks, governments, airlines, and businesses to choose between their connections with Tehran or access to the U.S. market. Recently, Treasury’s assistant secretary for terrorist financing, Jonathan Burke, directly communicated with Iran’s trading partners across the Middle East and Europe.

Bessent pointed to successful outcomes from the campaign, noting actions taken against Iran’s Mahan Air by Turkey and Oman, as well as systematic restrictions on Iranian airline services in the UAE. Treasury has also expanded efforts against Iran’s networks involved in maritime and cryptocurrency sanctions evasion.

“They are isolated from the world,” Bessent declared, characterizing Iran as a “pariah state.” Trump supported Bessent’s viewpoint in the evening, stating that the economic pressure and military strategies are working hand in hand in the campaign against Iran.

When asked if the U.S. could succeed through Treasury’s economic initiatives, Trump responded positively. “I think both,” he said. “I think we’ll win it both ways.”

On military matters, Trump claimed that the U.S. has already achieved a significant advantage. He did, however, note that the campaign isn’t finished yet. “That doesn’t mean we’ve stopped that,” he clarified. “But we’re certainly winning it very big.”

Trump predicted that the conflict might conclude “very soon,” emphasizing that the primary U.S. objective is to prevent Tehran from acquiring nuclear weapons. “And the key is Iran will not have a nuclear weapon,” he stressed. “That’s the key to the whole thing.”

Recent reports indicate that upcoming talks are likely to revolve around nuclear negotiations. While mediators are urging Iran to make concessions regarding its nuclear program, Tehran has not shown readiness to do so yet. Iran is looking for relief from sanctions and access to its frozen assets, while the U.S. insists that Iran must first address its nuclear ambitions, seeing little reason to yield leverage that continues to strengthen.

Bessent highlighted that the pressure campaign is designed to ensure that any future negotiations yield stronger agreements that are harder for Iran to abandon. “My job is to make sure that, when they come with a deal, that they want to stick to it,” he said, referencing Iran’s previous non-compliance with past agreements. He believes that this time, Washington will approach negotiations from a significantly stronger standpoint.

“Next time, if there is a deal — and that’s at President Trump’s discretion — they will stick to it,” he concluded. “Because they are on their knees.”