Origins of the 1789 Smallpox Outbreak in Australia
The cause of the smallpox outbreak in Australia back in 1789, which had a devastating impact on the Indigenous population, has been a subject of much discussion. A recent study using mathematical modeling now suggests the likely culprit: the “First Fleet” of British ships that arrived in 1788.
This study challenges previous theories indicating that the outbreak was introduced through contact with Indonesian fishermen from the northern region of Australia. Alan Williams, an archaeologist at EMM Consulting and one of the study’s co-authors, explained that the smallpox likely came from dried scabs stored by British medical personnel for inoculation purposes, which predated actual vaccines.
Some historians had contended that the live virus wouldn’t have survived the lengthy journey from Portsmouth, England, to Botany Bay, south of what is today Sydney. However, Williams pointed out that these vials could have been replenished during the fleet’s stops in places like Cape Town or Rio de Janeiro prior to landing in Australia.
The outbreak heavily impacted Indigenous communities, leading to a significant cultural decline. Estimates indicate that around 220,000 Indigenous people perished from the disease. Interestingly, early 20th-century Australian authorities didn’t fully grasp the scale of the Indigenous population when trying to document history.
A Closer Look at the First Fleet
Just a few decades after British Royal Navy officer James Cook charted Australia, the British began sending ships to settle the land. The First Fleet, comprising 11 vessels—two naval ships, six convict carriers, and three supply ships—landed at Botany Bay, which they deemed unfit for settlement, leading them to move to Sydney Cove. There, they planted the British flag, claiming the land for themselves.
Initially, there weren’t signs of smallpox among nearby Indigenous groups when the First Fleet arrived, yet the disease wreaked havoc in the following decades. Due to the absence of cases on the fleet itself, it was believed that the virus was introduced from the northern coast via contact with islanders. However, recent modeling indicates that the spread from the north to southeastern Australia was highly improbable due to vast uninhabited areas separating the two regions.
Matthew Cody Nitschke, another co-author of the study and a computer modeling expert at Flinders University, affirmed that the evidence clearly points to the First Fleet as the origin of the outbreak.
At that time, disease transmission theories were not well-understood, and Williams suggested that the spread of smallpox likely occurred accidentally.
Revising Historical Estimates
This latest research not only addresses the outbreak but also challenges previous estimates of the Indigenous population before the First Fleet’s arrival. It posits that there could have been as many as 3 million Indigenous Australians, as opposed to earlier figures of roughly 300,000. This second study, pending publication, highlights that the potential population capacity might have reached 5 million, especially in resource-rich areas.
The older estimate of 300,000 seems to have stemmed from a 1930s study influenced by the already depleted numbers due to violence and disease. Historian Henry Reynolds believes this new research effectively refutes the notion that smallpox originated in the north, while Ann McGrath, from the Australian National University, praised its interdisciplinary approach, which convincingly expands our understanding of the Indigenous population in pre-colonial Australia.
