The cattle market experienced a notable downturn on Friday, largely influenced by the impending ‘Cattle on Feed’ report. Traders seemed more anxious about a potential strike at the JBS Greeley plant in Colorado than the strong spot market where JBS continues to buy slaughter cattle. While negotiations are ongoing, there’s a flood of negative commentary suggesting a strike is inevitable, though neither producers nor packers appear alarmed. Producers opted out of packers’ bids, and packers raised their offers throughout the day. Analysts remain adamant that a strike is an eventuality. With futures trading close to record highs, traders are hesitant to engage too deeply, worrying that they might miss out before the market cools down. Interestingly, the feeder index has been quite robust, defying expectations as futures prices dipped on Friday but the index hit new highs. Futures are trading at a discount compared to the index; however, back in October, leading futures contracts were priced above it. The recently released Cattle on Feed report indicates that producers are actively investing in their cattle as supplies tighten. Conversations with my clients suggest that producers are becoming more assertive with breeding, which likely drives up prices for replacement heifers. Does this imply a future tightening of supply as these heifers exit the system? There are also reports of producers moving feed cows to market earlier than usual, which could contribute to tighter supplies down the line.
Turning to April’s detailed pricing, we saw a drop from a high of 243.675 down to a low of 241.275, with a liquidation value hitting 242.00. The price fell to test support at 242.075; with the rising 8-DMA positioned at 241.225. Should April live bulls maintain their settlement, we might see prices testing resistance at Thursday’s high of 244.125, with a subsequent resistance level of 245.125. If they drop below, support could emerge at the rising 13-DMA, currently at 240.375, with next support levels at 239.25 and 238.125. As for March feeder cattle, prices shifted from a high of 371.125 to a low of 366.575, settling at 368.025. This fluctuation breached the support level at 369.375, testing short-term moving average support just above that.
As of February 19, 2026, the feeder cow index stands at 377.37. In terms of boxed beef cutouts, the selection cutout rose by 1.53 to reach 366.70, while the other selection cutout climbed by 0.95 to 360.74. The discrepancy between the pick/select spread widened to 5.96, with total loads numbering 106.
In estimated slaughters reported last Friday, there were approximately 89,000 cases, slightly up from the previous week but significantly lower than last year’s total of 108,174. Saturday is projected to see no slaughters, which is a drop from last week’s 1,000 and last year’s 14,979. So far this week, the estimated count of animals processed stands at 516,000, down from last week’s 541,000 and last year’s 564,737.
According to USDA report LM_Ct131, cash deals in Nebraska on Friday reflected moderate trading amid solid demand. Dress purchases traded at $388.00, showing an increase of almost $6.00 from the prior week. There wasn’t sufficient live trade to gauge the market accurately, but the last known live transactions in Nebraska rested between 245.00 and 246.00. Activity was moderately strong in the western Corn Belt, with purchases reflecting an uptrend of 1.00-2.00 from last week, sitting between 245.00-247.00. The dress purchase transaction of $388.00 marks an increase of 6.00-8.00 compared to last week.
In Texas, the previous established market saw live buys ranging from 246.00 to 248.00, mostly settling at 248.00, while Kansas had last week’s live trades listed between 248.00 and 249.00, with a majority recorded at 248.00. Current USDA figures indicate live cattle cash transactions for the week are between 240.00 to 249.00 and 380.00 to 388.50 for clothed purchases.
For the U.S. cattle feed situation, feedlot capacities exceeding 1,000 animals totaled about 11.5 million as of February 1, 2026, a 2% decrease from the same time last year. In January, 1.74 million animals were recorded in feedlots, reflecting a 5% drop compared to 2025, alongside net placements reported at 1.68 million head. Various weight categories noted transfers, with 360,000 cows and calves under 600 pounds to 105,000 over 900 pounds.
Regarding marketing, the number of cows fed in January was approximately 1.63 million head, a decrease of 13% from 2025. Other disappearances showed a total of 55,000 animals in January, an 8% drop compared to the previous year. By January 1, 2026, feedlots with over 1,000 animals accounted for about 82.7% of the total cows and calves fed, a slight increase from 82.5% in 2025. The count of cows fed in sizable feedlots represented 87.1% of all cows sold from U.S. feedlots in 2025, which is a minor dip from 87.2% in 2024.
