President Trump is planning to meet with Russian President Vladimir Putin possibly this week in Alaska. The main agenda is Trump’s goal to put an end to the ongoing war in Ukraine and the associated violence.
Despite previous promises made by Trump during his campaign, like resolving this quickly, it seems that 24 hours might not be enough to reach any solid agreement.
Last week, Trump sent his envoy, Steve Witkov, to Moscow. Witkov hinted that this meeting was partly initiated by Trump and Putin. Maybe Trump is feeling the pressure as his deadline approaches, striving for some success to help end the conflict.
It’s intriguing to consider why Putin agreed to this meeting. It’s possible he needs to alleviate sanctions for financial reasons or thinks he’s achieved his objectives in Ukraine. Alternatively, he might realize that the agreements made previously—like the Minsk contract—haven’t provided the security Ukraine desired, and he’s utilizing different strategies to exert control over neighboring territories.
As of now, the administration hasn’t indicated that Trump’s submarine operations have influenced Putin’s decision to meet. U.S. submarines have been positioned near Russian waters since the Cold War, often conducting missions within Soviet territory.
Trump has threatened North Korea’s Kim Jong Un in the past, claiming his nuclear capabilities were superior. They had a couple of meetings, but not much changed beyond some bold talk.
Now, could U.S. submarines create a similar effect on Putin? As Commander, Trump has the authority to deploy the U.S. Navy, including a fleet of 68 nuclear submarines. Some of these, like the Ohio Class, are armed with long-range ballistic missiles and can carry numerous Tomahawk cruise missiles.
It’s unclear how these submarines might get Putin’s attention. Russia has previously reacted to U.S. naval movements nearby, but given the missile ranges, it’s hard to see how their presence would directly impact negotiations.
There’s also the geographical challenge. The Baltic Sea is too shallow for effective submarine operations, while the Mediterranean does not offer significant strategic advantages. The Black Sea is essentially off-limits to non-coastal submarines, which means options are limited.
So, did the presence of submarines really make a difference? It’s hard to say.
Sanctions haven’t seemed to deter Putin. Russia has adeptly redirected a significant portion of its oil exports to China and India. Although Trump has imposed sanctions on India, they haven’t extended to China yet, and Putin is likely aware of the complexities that accompany these sanctions.
China’s interdependence with the U.S. complicates matters. They have alternatives and haven’t maneuvered to take U.S. exports away from other markets, which prompts questions about their strategy.
India, lacking the sway that China has, might move closer to China as tensions with the U.S. rise. This doesn’t play to America’s advantage.
There are also worst-case scenarios to consider. If China and India were to halt energy imports from Russia, it’s unclear where the demand would shift. The U.S. might not be positioned to fill that gap, leading to inflation in oil prices and possibly spurring a recession.
Does Trump understand these complex dynamics? Or is he indifferent to them?
What leverage does Trump have over Putin, or the other way around? Putin is likely aware that Trump wishes to end this conflict, but what does that truly mean for negotiations? Are we looking at a modern-day version of the Munich Agreement, where temporary peace is sought but no real solutions are found?
As one contemplates these questions, knowing Putin’s past behavior offers some insights.
