China said it had fired an intercontinental ballistic missile into “international waters” in the Pacific Ocean, passing over the northern Philippines, in what was believed to be its first test since the early 1980s.
The Defense Ministry said the missile was equipped with a fake warhead. The launch comes amid increased international scrutiny of the country's nuclear arsenal, with several countries expressing concern.
The intercontinental ballistic missile was fired by the People's Liberation Army Rocket Force (PLARF) at 8:44 a.m. Beijing time on Wednesday. China's Defense Ministry said the launch was part of “regular arrangements in our annual training program” and that the missile “fell in the expected sea area.” It said the launch was not aimed at any specific country or target, and gave no further details.
In a separate report, the state-run Xinhua News Agency said China had notified “concerned” countries in advance, but did not specify which countries.
The Guardian confirmed with Philippine authorities that two maritime and air navigation alerts were issued on Monday for the country's northwest and northeast “related to the launch.” The alerts specifically mentioned a special operation “conducted by China,” but it is unclear whether the Philippines had been informed that the operation was an ICBM launch.
Japanese government spokesman Yoshimasa Hayashi told reporters on Wednesday afternoon that Japan had not been informed ahead of the launches and that China's rapid military buildup was a “serious concern,” while Taiwan's Defense Ministry said only that it had detected “intensive” Chinese missile launches and other training recently, without providing details.
Analysts say the missile was likely launched from or near Hainan island and landed somewhere near French Polynesia, a route that is consistent with Philippine intelligence and NOTAMs issued for areas near French territory.
The notice warned airspace users of the “particularly dangerous nature” of aviation and urged them to avoid the area during the period that ended about 105 minutes after the PLA announced the missile launches. The notice did not mention any specific Chinese activities.
New Zealand's foreign minister said the ICBM test landing in the South Pacific was an “unwelcome and worrying development”.
“Pacific leaders have been clear that they want this region to be peaceful, stable, prosperous and secure,” Foreign Minister Spokesman Winston Peters told AFP.
Part of the Notam area also overlapped with French Polynesia's exclusive economic zone, but it is unclear where exactly the ICBMs landed. In 2022, the People's Liberation Army fired five missiles during a military exercise that landed in Japan's exclusive economic zone, sparking protests from Tokyo. Then-Defense Minister Kishi Nobuo said the missiles “pose a threat to Japan's national security and the lives of its people, and we strongly condemn them.”
Drew Thompson, a senior research fellow at the Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy at the National University of Singapore, said China regularly tests short- and medium-range rockets on Chinese soil and in the waters of the western Pacific as part of a “large-scale, well-funded and technologically advanced ballistic missile program.” But ICBM tests are unusual.
The last known such launch was in 1980, when North Korea's first ICBM, the Dong Feng 5, was launched into the Pacific Ocean. Analysts speculate that the ICBM tested Wednesday was the Dong Feng 31, which has a range of 12,000-15,000 kilometers, or its predecessor, the Dong Feng 31, which has a range of 7,200-8,000 kilometers.
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Thompson noted that ICBM test launches like the one North Korea conducted are typically launched at high altitudes and travel long distances, but that its missile landed closer to its launch site than China's test launch on Wednesday. He said China's decision to fly the long distance was “clearly” to send a message.
“This is not necessarily a political signal, even though the People's Liberation Army is the armed wing of the Chinese Communist Party and anything to do with the Chinese Communist Party is political,” Thompson said.
“But this is happening at a time when China is experiencing significant tensions with Japan, the Philippines, Taiwan, and also volatile political tensions with the United States. It's a tense time. It's also the week of the United Nations General Assembly. China is sending strong signals about the power it can exert on the world.”
The PLA Ballistic Force, which has been mired in a corruption crisis and purged several top officials in recent years, controls China's conventional and nuclear missiles and is working to modernize China's nuclear arsenal as a deterrent to U.S. military advances. The force has a “no first use” policy regarding nuclear weapons.
“This move is intended to send a clear signal that the tools of strategic deterrence are still in place,” Alexander Neal, a visiting fellow at the Hawaii-based think tank Pacific Forum, told Reuters.
The Pentagon projects that China will double the number of operational nuclear warheads from about 500 today to 1,000 by the end of the decade. The United States and Russia have 1,770 and 1,710 operational warheads deployed, respectively. About 350 of China's current stockpile are ICBMs, and the People's Liberation Army is building hundreds of secret silos to house land-based missiles, according to a 2023 Pentagon report.
