There’s some unease among Democrats regarding the term-limited race to succeed California Governor Gavin Newsom. With a crowded field, the possibility exists that two Republican candidates could edge out Democrats in a state that heavily leans Democratic.
Polling and redistricting expert Paul Mitchell pointed out the reasons for Democratic concern. He works for Political Data and was involved in the gerrymandering initiative during Newsom’s administration. His tools analyze which candidates might secure the top two positions in the upcoming June primary, thereby advancing to the November election.
Currently, both Republican candidates have about a 17% chance of making it to the November runoff. That’s quite a jump from the 2% to 3% threshold that would make Democrats comfortable.
“Honestly, they have every reason to be on edge,” he said.
His predictive models show Republican Steve Hilton has a solid 73% probability of reaching one of the top two spots. Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco holds around a 40% chance. The remaining candidates are all Democrats, yet none have shown better prospects.
The state’s Democratic Party has encouraged candidates with lower popularity ratings, like ex-Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa and former Governor Betty Yee, to step back. This could potentially consolidate support for candidates with higher approval, such as Rep. Eric Swalwell, progressive billionaire Tom Steyer, and former Rep. Katie Porter.
Yet, Mitchell suggests that this strategy may no longer be effective.
“They really can’t just drop out; their names will still appear on the ballot,” he observed. “So they’re still going to collect votes.” He explained this with the case of former state Senator Leland Yee, who, following his arrest in 2014, withdrew from the race for Secretary of State but still garnered over 380,000 votes.
Pollsters noted that some organizations might be reconsidering their endorsements or funding techniques, which could have a significant impact on the election outcomes.
“Actions like that can actually shift the dynamics of an election,” he mentioned.
For Republicans, the best approach is perhaps not to “play” the system to ensure an all-GOP runoff. Congressman Carl DeMaio is stressing the importance of unifying Republican votes between Hilton and Bianco. If not, there’s a real chance they could each fail to secure a top position.
“We need to focus on data-driven choices because splitting votes could lead to a shutout,” DeMaio highlighted. “Regardless of which Republican candidate you favor, your vote should count.”
Mitchell believes that having one Republican in November’s ballot might actually serve the party well. He warned that if Republicans were to gamble and miss out on the general election, the fallout could be severe.
“There’s no realistic expectation of winning statewide, but having someone on the ballot is crucial to rallying support,” Mitchell explained. This absence could lead to major losses for Republicans down the line.
Meanwhile, the California Democratic Party estimates an 82% chance of at least one Democrat advancing to the runoff. However, they shouldn’t get too complacent about that likelihood.
“The odds were similarly favorable for Hillary Clinton in her race,” Mitchell remarked.
