New Jersey Sen. Bob Menendez’s decision to run as an independent has positioned him as an obstacle to the state’s Democratic challenger, potentially making the race for New Jersey’s Senate seat much closer than it might otherwise have been.
Menendez has served in the Senate as a Democrat since 2006, but recently announced his candidacy as an independent amid an ongoing federal corruption trial. Menendez’s independent run complicates things for Democratic candidate Andy Kim and intensifies the race for a seat that has been Democratic for more than 50 years. (Related article: Federal judge rejects request to postpone Senator Menendez’s corruption trial)
“Menendez could certainly be a disruptor.” Mike Duhamel “He’s been a pioneer among Hispanic politicians for decades and has a loyal following in Hudson County, a base where Kim can expect overwhelming support. Menendez will make inroads there,” former chief strategist for Chris Christie’s gubernatorial campaign told the Daily Caller News Foundation.
Rep. Andy Kim (D-NJ) at the Capitol in Washington, D.C. (Nicholas Kam Pool/Getty Images)
In the two-candidate race, Kim leads Republican candidate Curtis Bashaw by nine points, with 48% support to Bashaw’s 39%. Fairleigh Dickinson University Poll Since April. Including Menendez, Kim leads by just 5 points, with 44% approval and Basho at 39%. Menendez attracts about 6% of voters who would otherwise vote for Kim.
In a hypothetical three-way race with Republican and Democratic candidates, Menendez would receive just 9% support as an independent. Emerson College Poll/PIX11/The Hill Poll Since March, 49% of New Jersey voters support the Democratic candidate and 42% support the Republican candidate.
“With Joe Biden’s disastrously low approval ratings and the Democratic Party in total disarray, this is the biggest opportunity Republicans have in a generation to win a New Jersey Senate seat,” Janet Hoffman, a spokesperson for Sen. Curtis Bashaw’s campaign, told DCNF. “Polling shows that voters are tired of the corruption and machine politics that the New Jersey Democratic Party has perpetuated for decades.”
Kim won the Democratic nomination on Tuesday. Landslide It received 75% of the votes. Basho He defeated the Trump-backed candidate, Mayor Mendham, to win the Republican nomination with 45% of the vote. Christine Serrano Glasnerwhich won 38%.
New Jersey Senator Bob Menendez is pictured in New York City on May 14, 2024. The senator is on trial on federal corruption charges. (Photo by Andrea Renaud/Star Max/GC Images)
Menendez’s approval rating has been heavily impacted by his recent indictment: In April 2022, Menendez had a 44% approval rating and 39% disapproval rating among New Jersey voters. Monmouth University PollFollowing his 2023 indictment, his approval ratings have plummeted to negatives, with 45% disapproval and 36% approval. 75% of voters say he is probably guilty and 63% say he should step down.
New Jersey’s Senate seat has been held by Democrats since 1972, but polls suggest Republicans may have a shot at it. Past Republican victories in New Jersey have been narrow, sometimes due to obstructionist candidates.
In 2009, former Republican Governor Chris Christie won New Jersey. Gubernatorial election Due to an independent obstructionist candidate, the party received less than 50% of the vote.
“Republicans have won six gubernatorial elections here since 1981, with Christie most recently in 2009 and 2013,” Duhaime told DCNF. “Four of those six times, Republicans won with less than 50% of the vote. Christie won in 2009 even though there was a Republican independent in the race, so Republicans tend to be able to maneuver a little better and win with less than 50% if an independent is serious about it.”
“We’re watching New Jersey closely,” Mike Berg, communications director for the Republican Senatorial Committee, told DCNF.
The campaigns of Rep. Andy Kim and Sen. Bob Menendez did not immediately respond to requests for comment from the DCNF.
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