.elementor-panel-state-loading{ display: none; }



Don’t expect the frozen race between Trump, Biden to thaw any time soon 

The 2024 election has been a hot topic of conversation after conversation: indictments, convictions, revelations, gaffes, and the imminent demise (some say) of democracy. But over the past six months, the polls for President Biden and President Donald Trump have barely changed. At best, the polls have wavered.

The election campaign has been dominated by two groups of far-right factions who not only dislike both candidates, but are also clearly Even to choose at this point.

This is surprising given the events of the past year. Yet neither Biden nor Trump have made any notable statements. Biden has always stammered and stammered when he speaks. His administration has no answer for inflation, and his executive actions on illegal immigration have been too few and too late. Biden’s State of the Union address was a flop, Humanitarian Pier He is sunk, and both Israel and Hamas are ignoring him with impunity.

As for Trump, he has 34 convictions, two civil lawsuit losses, frequent rants on Truth Social, and The promised all-you-can-eat buffet To anyone he thinks he can buy (though, to be fair, Biden Legality).

Stuck on voting test 

which Real Clear Politics Moving average and 538 moving average, The race has barely moved in the past few months, and has only moved slightly in the past year. RCP’s national average had Trump leading by 1.2 percentage points as of June 13, 2023. As of writing this analysis, Trump has a lead of less than 1%. The 538 average, which takes into account more polls, has seen even less movement since March. Trump has remained ahead, but never by more than 2.2%.

The RCP average has more variability than the 538 average, but that is in relative terms. Since June 2023, Trump’s highest poll average was 47.8% and his lowest was 43%. Biden’s ranged from 46.7% to 42.9%. Trump’s biggest lead was on January 26th, just over 4%, but it didn’t last long. The RCP average is somewhat skewed by the inclusion of “forced vote” results, where undecided voters are forced to lean one way or the other. In my view, categorizing these “leaners” is not useful until after Labor Day.

The 538 average has remained largely unchanged. Trump has fluctuated from 43.2% on March 29 to 40.9% in the latest average. Biden has fluctuated from a high of 41.9% on March 25 to 39.5% on May 30. In both polling averages, the changes appear to be typical sampling error rather than actual movement.

Why Trump became popular Betting Markets Trump is ahead in several battleground states. The former president has consistently led in Arizona, Georgia, Nevada and North Carolina, both within or close to the polls’ margin of error. Trump has slight leads in Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, but those states are really close. Biden is especially Filled the gap In Michigan.

More about polls than politics 

Despite all the events, court cases and money spent, the reality is that the polls are moving but the voters are not. disliked by the majority of voters And neither provides a compelling justification for accounting for disgruntled swing voters in election results. What fluctuates are opinion polls based on sampling decisions and ordinary statistical error.

This is most evident in the number of approvals. Over the past year: Trump A July 17 poll of 538 people showed his approval rating at minus 18.7%, but by February 28, it had fallen to minus 7.7%. It has now fallen by 12.3%. Biden The spread was minus 11 percentage points in August last year, but is now near its lowest level at minus 18.5%.

but, RCP Politics There is wide and consistent variation in the polls’ favorability rankings of the leaders. Only three polls have given Trump a net positive approval rating over the past year: Rasmussen and YouGov each had one, and Harvard-Harris had six. But Harvard-Harris is an even-keeled optimist, giving Biden the highest approval rating, including a minus-3 point rating in November.

In contrast, ABC News/Ipsos gave Trump and Biden the worst approval ratings, with Biden recording minus 24 and minus 22 points in January and June of last year, respectively, and Trump recording even worse ratings of minus 31 and minus 29 points in November and August of last year.

The problem with these two polls is that they are consistently way off from other polls. It’s completely natural for results to be off from time to time, but only Harvard-Harris sees Trump’s net approval rating as favorable. Rasmussen leans a bit towards Trump and YouGov leans a bit towards Biden, but this can be reasonably explained by voter turnout assumptions. Being up to 10 points off from the poll averages indicates sampling issues.

The good news for each side is that there are plenty of polls to choose from, and over the course of the week, both Biden and Trump can be sure that some will emerge with relatively good news.

There have been two big turning points in this contest so far. Disorganized withdrawal from Afghanistan For Biden, this was a polling and political disaster: His approval rating was consistently positive from his inauguration until the day before the Taliban came to power on August 11, 2021. After two months of wavering support, Biden was down minus five points in the Morning Consult poll on October 11 and has remained in the red ever since.

Occurrence of The war between Israel and Hamas The incident further dented Biden’s approval rating, and in its aftermath Trump has slight leads in Arizona, Georgia and Nevada. Trump can claim 268 electoral votes, a narrow margin but not enough to win. Biden is in even worse shape, needing to win the swing states and avoid upsets in others.

Given that the race is on ice, Future discussions It could be another turning point. Perhaps they’ll stumble to victory, giving disaffected undecideds yet another reason to remain neutral. But these two veterans are certainly capable of an outburst or a devastating gaffe. Otherwise, the race will languish until the fall, when median voters will have to make a choice.

Keith NortonHe is co-founder of Silent Majority Strategies, a public and regulatory affairs consulting firm, and a former political campaign consultant in Pennsylvania.