In elections, we often talk less about the winners than the losers. As the saying goes, victory has many fathers, but defeat shows you exactly what went wrong.
Pennsylvania's 2024 results provide a master class in Democratic Party collapse. While Trump defeated Kamala Harris by two points in the presidential election, Republicans won every statewide vote.
Dave McCormick won by a narrow margin. 3-term Senator Bob Casey;Dave Sunday defeated Eugene DePasquale in the attorney general election by a 5-point margin. Incumbent Tim Defour defeated Malcolm Kenyatta by an even wider margin in the Auditor General election.
The story of how Democrats failed in Pennsylvania will unfold in the final weeks of the campaign. President Trump's strategy covered working-class neighborhoods. simple and direct message: “Trump: Secure Borders/Kamala: Open Borders”, “Trump: Low Inflation/Harris: High Inflation”.
His team's “Kamala is for them” ad prompted legal threats, but achieved its intended effect. Democrats are more concerned about boutique issues than they are about food-table concerns like inflation. Harris, on the other hand, released a series of expertly produced works; Culturally tone-deaf advertising It attempts to depict the life of the working class in Pennsylvania.
Harris' response was spot on. Her team has launched what is considered an October surprise. It's a series of joint appearances. unpopular former Republican Liz Cheney focused onsave democracy” The rally, held primarily in wealthy suburban enclaves, symbolized the campaign's fundamental misreading of the state's political geography.
Her campaign's last notable attempt at working-class authenticity, a working-class character who looks like an actor delivering the focused line that Trump is a “little silver spoon boy” Commercials featuring locals became a staple among my working-class relatives. Union Hall also has vegan bulgogi tacos.
This disconnect in messaging infected every Democratic campaign. Mr. DePasquale, running for attorney general, focused on his record as a fiscal watchdog and government reformer, but not as a prosecutor. Because he has never been a prosecutor. A compelling proposal in theory, but withered in the face of Sunday's tenacity from career prosecutors. focus Decreasing fentanyl seizures and crime rates in York County. While DePasquale talked about process and oversight, the team on Sunday posted body camera footage of drug busts and arrests on social media.
Kenyatta's Auditor General election campaign has highlighted deeper problems in the party. The 34-year-old progressive rising star was primarily known for his viral speeches and failed Senate bid, campaigning to turn the office into a vehicle for social change. That made sense, knowing he had no experience in the role. against Incumbent Mr. Defour's frank message that transcends party affiliation Kenyatta’s ambitious plan to reduce waste and protect taxpayers looks like a DEI solution to explore the problem.
Even Mr. Casey, who had built his career on careful restraint and support for workers, could not win enough votes to secure a fourth term. Mr. Casey, who for decades has positioned himself as a blue-collar, blue-dog Democrat, has recently selectively embraced progressive ideals, making him perfect fodder. McCormick Advertising Team.
While Republican ads decried Mr. Casey's voting record and ties to toppled presidential candidate Harris, his campaign countered with a barrage of increasingly desperate fundraising emails, none of which It foretold impending doom. The wildly off-topic messages—with subject lines like “Avoid disaster” and “Worst news ever”—became a self-fulfilling prophecy. Who would want to vote for the loser?
This result reveals the failure of the Democratic Party's coalition-building strategy. Through careful messaging and strategic positioning, Harris' team believed they could unite urban progressives and anti-Trump suburbanites while retaining enough working-class voters. Instead, they accomplished the rare political feat of speaking persuasively to everyone.
Gov. Josh Shapiro, who was floated as Harris' running mate, epitomized these contradictions. His “Get Sh*t Done” gubernatorial slogan promised real results, but resulted in historic inaction. The Commonwealth Foundation reported — Signed just 111 bills in 18 months, the fewest by a Pennsylvania governor in 50 years. For comparison, Virginia's Glenn Youngkin established a part-time legislature during the same period and passed 1,654 bills.
Its effects extend beyond a single election cycle. in spite of, Slowly decreasing populationPennsylvania's 19 electoral votes and competitive Senate seats make it essential for any future Democratic coalition.
But Tuesday's results suggest the party has lost its ability to effectively communicate with voters outside of Philadelphia and Pittsburgh. The vote margins in state legislatures are larger than the margins for president, indicating a problem deeper than the shortcomings of individual candidates.
As they have done since 2016, Democrats continued to try to thread an impossible needle. The idea is to appease progressives with hollow identity politics, appeal to suburban Republicans, and maintain a working-class base in the absence of real working-class policy proposals.
As a result, messaging was so carefully orchestrated that it became meaningless and insubstantial in every part. Kamala Harris' final cameo on SNL.
If Democrats can't drive a message that resonates beyond their urban base, and without sounding like a McKinsey consultant explaining steel manufacturing to a career steelworker, Unless they can find an experienced and capable candidate to do so, Tuesday's results could spell a permanent realignment in the once Democratic state. It is believed that you can win.
Here in the Keystone State, as elsewhere in the country, coalition governments are almost non-existent due to the party's obsession with building a complete coalition.
Oliver Bateman is a Pittsburgh-based historian and journalist. He blogs, video blogs, and podcasts on Substack “Oliver Bateman Does the Work.”
Reprinted with permission from real clear pennsylvania.
