Trump’s Claims on 401(k) Growth During His Term
President Donald Trump has frequently highlighted the stock market’s rise during his second term, suggesting that Americans are seeing their wealth grow due to larger 401(k) retirement plan balances.
On June 23, speaking in Macungie, Pennsylvania, Trump claimed, “As you know, the price of a typical 401(k)… has increased by almost $30,000 in 13 months.”
He made a similar argument in his State of the Union address on February 24.
The stock market did see gains during Trump’s second term. However, the average increase he mentioned isn’t backed by data. It is roughly three times the growth identified in a comprehensive analysis of 401(k) balances. Additionally, many Americans began withdrawing from their 401(k) accounts ahead of retirement to deal with unexpected financial challenges.
The White House did not provide any proof for Trump’s statement. White House Press Secretary Khush Desai noted that “the stock market hit multiple all-time highs” during Trump’s second term.
Stock Market Performance During Trump’s Term
The Standard & Poor’s 500 index, which tracks a variety of publicly traded companies, has shown notable gains since Trump was inaugurated on January 20, 2025.
From his second inauguration to the State of the Union address in February 2026, when Trump first mentioned the $30,000 figure, the S&P rose approximately 13%. By June 23, the index had increased about 24% since he began his second term.
401(k) Growth: The Reality
So, how much benefit does the average 401(k) holder see? Determining what constitutes a “typical” 401(k) balance can be tricky. People of various ages, incomes, and employer policies will have widely differing amounts, along with the types of investments in their accounts.
“The more funds you have in your account, the more potential for growth,” said Joe Fitter, a finance lecturer at Indiana University’s Kelley School of Business.
Fidelity Investments, which oversees numerous 401(k) plans, offers the most reliable data available.
They regularly analyze balances from over 26,000 corporate 401(k) plans that serve roughly 25 million individuals, also providing an average breakdown by the age of account holders.
In reviewing Fidelity’s data from December 31, 2024, to March 31, 2026, we can estimate the growth in 401(k) balances during Trump’s claim-making period. This data reflects an average increase of $9,454 over the 15 months since he assumed office. This figure stands at about a third of the $30,000 figure Trump referenced.
The highest average gain was seen among those aged 55 to 59, who experienced an increase of about $16,000. However, experts indicate that the actual average gain could be even less than $9,454.
“The median figure is probably lower than $9,000 because averages can be skewed by high-balance accounts,” stated Mark A. Johnson, an investment expert at Wake Forest University. Furthermore, according to Mark Williams from Boston University, one would likely need a minimum of $200,000 in their 401(k) to achieve a $30,000 increase, a figure not typical of most holders. Only about 10% to 20% of adults in the U.S. have that level of savings.
It’s also worth mentioning that the overall increase in 401(k) balances stems not just from stock market growth but also from participants’ contributions, as well as, in some cases, employer matches.
Why 401(k) Balances Lag Behind Market Growth
The growth rates for 401(k) accounts at Fidelity don’t necessarily align with the overall market. From December 31, 2024, to March 31, 2026, the S&P 500 rose about 11%, while average 401(k) balances grew around 6.5%. Some age groups, particularly the younger and older ones, demonstrated even smaller gains.
One reason for the slower growth is the mixture of investment options within 401(k) accounts. Williams noted that most 401(k) portfolios are composed of 60% to 65% stocks, with the rest in safer investments like bonds. Given the flat returns on bonds during this period, overall 401(k) returns are diminished.
Additionally, 401(k) accounts allow for withdrawals—something that, while offering immediate access to funds, comes with penalties for early distribution.
Withdrawals before age 59½ can incur a 10% penalty and income taxes, unless there’s a qualifying circumstance such as medical emergencies or costs related to a new baby.
Investment firm Vanguard reported in March that more participants are opting for these withdrawals. About 6% of 401(k) holders took hardship withdrawals in 2025, a rise from 4.8% in 2024 and surpassing pre-pandemic levels.
Dorothy C. Kelley, a personal finance lecturer at the University of Virginia, pointed out that for many Americans under 59½, the benefits of 401(k) accounts aren’t immediately useful amidst rising living costs and cash shortages.
“While the net worth of the average American with retirement accounts may see gains from a strong stock market, the increase in these illiquid assets doesn’t help with day-to-day expenses,” she added.
Conclusion
Trump claimed that “the typical 401(k)… has increased in value by almost $30,000” over the past 13 months.
Though the stock market has indeed shown growth during his term, the $30,000 figure appears unfounded.
According to Fidelity’s data, the real average uptick in 401(k) balances from December 31, 2024, to March 31, 2026, was $9,454, with no surveyed age group seeing increases exceeding about half of Trump’s stated figure.
This claim is rated as Mostly False since it incorporates some truth while neglecting additional information that could alter the overall impression.
