Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is known locally for maintaining a cautious stance to avoid conflict. However, his international critics – and even some of Israel’s adversaries – argue he isn’t really a “warm” leader. In fact, many in Israel have openly criticized him for trying to prevent war until it absolutely cannot be avoided, especially following events on October 7th.
Despite this, Netanyahu seems poised to shift toward confronting Iran’s nuclear ambitions. Ironically, this push is coming from none other than President Donald Trump.
It might seem odd, given that Trump has historically been more proactive in supporting Israel than any previous US president.
Since reclaiming office, Trump has reversed many of President Joe Biden’s policies, recently shutting down the office for Palestinian affairs that existed under the Biden administration. From October 7th, Israel has been guided to “endure violence and respond” accordingly. Trump has also renewed weapons supply to Israel and lifted Biden’s sanctions on Israeli settlers.
Yet, Trump is now exploring a new nuclear agreement with Iran, and early indications suggest it shares significant flaws with President Barack Obama’s previous Iran deal.
Reports indicate that Iran might keep its nuclear enrichment infrastructure even after stopping enrichment activities. Moreover, there’s still no definitive agreement in place to curb Iran’s support for foreign terrorist organizations or their missile programs.
Similar to the earlier Iranian deal, this new negotiation appears to overlook human rights considerations. This absence means the West lacks leverage to encourage political reforms in Iran, reminiscent of the approach with the Soviet Union.
During the period between the two deals, Iran began to act more aggressively after Biden took office in 2021, even making moves toward nuclear weaponry following a direct attack on Israel last year.
Netanyahu has remarked that a bad deal is preferable to no deal at all. Meanwhile, Trump seems frustrated with Netanyahu and may act independently if necessary.
Feelings seem to be mutual.
Netanyahu has often stated that Israel will take action on its own to safeguard its interests, irrespective of who’s in the Oval Office. This sets a clear expectation that Israel may unilaterally target Iran.
Israel perceives that the West holds significant leverage over the Iranian regime. Following Iran’s extensive ballistic missile attacks on Israel last year, Israeli forces have significantly diminished Iran’s air defenses. As things stand, there is little the current administration can do to deter air strikes.
Trump’s reinstatement of sanctions and his “maximum pressure” strategy have placed considerable strain on Iran’s economic stability and governance.
Iran had previously relied on its proxy forces, mainly Hezbollah in Lebanon, as a deterrent against attacks on its nuclear facilities. However, Hezbollah is weakened, Hamas has suffered severe losses in Gaza, the Syrian pro-Iranian regime has faced major setbacks, and the Houthis in Yemen have lost key territories in recent weeks.
Under these circumstances, the Iranian regime may not be able to refuse any potential agreements.
Still, there seems to be mixed signals emerging from the Trump administration. President Trump has declared that, if talks falter, he might lead an attack on Iran, asserting that Iran will bear responsibility for the Houthis’ actions.
However, he has been somewhat ambiguous regarding whether Iran could maintain a peaceful or military nuclear program.
Special envoy Stephen Witkov, viewed as somewhat naive by Israelis, appears overly enthusiastic about moving towards an agreement.
Additionally, the Trump administration has surprised Netanyahu’s government on a couple of occasions recently.
For instance, while sitting beside Trump at the White House last month, Netanyahu heard Trump announce that the US would engage in talks with Iran. Then, Trump declared a ceasefire with the Houthis, even as they pledged to continue their assaults without Israel’s involvement.
Netanyahu seems hesitant to jeopardize his rejuvenated relationship with Trump, but he also doesn’t want to be viewed as a leader who could have shielded his nation but failed to do so, especially in light of events after October 7th.
This situation heightens the likelihood of Israel launching its own offensive against Iran, leaving the US to manage any fallout. This may indeed be what Trump envisions; public disagreements with Israel could serve his own narrative.
Either way, it wouldn’t be surprising to see this unfold.
