Regime’s Shift in Iran Following War with Israel

The Iranian government seems to be turning inwards after a recent 12-day conflict with Israel. According to Kasra Arabi, the director of IRGC research at United, the situation is evolving into a model reminiscent of North Korea, marked by heightened isolation and control.

Arabi commented on the significant effects this domestic isolation is having on the Iranian populace. He observed, “The administration has always maintained a totalitarian grip, but now the level of control is unprecedented. This is something we’ve not encountered before.” Reports suggest that the oppression within Iran has reached alarming levels.

A noted source, describing his ongoing communication lines within Iran, indicated that citizens frequently experience phone confiscation and searches. “If you’re caught even joking about pro-Israel sentiments, you could vanish,” he said. It seems people are increasingly cautious, often leaving their phones behind or deleting sensitive content before heading out.

This climate of paranoia mirrors tactics employed by North Korea. During the recent conflict, the Iranian leadership enacted widespread internet blackouts to further isolate the population. Not only were alerts for Israeli evacuations blocked, but propaganda was actively spread to paint Israel as a careless aggressor.

Arabi noted, “There was a disturbing intent behind this. By cutting off communications, they aimed to instill fear and shift public perception. For several days, not a single message got through, even warnings about Israeli evacuations.” The administration’s dual objectives during this turmoil were apparent. Initially, many Iranians appeared supportive of attacks on the IRGC, a faction responsible for oppressing them. However, the ensuing atmosphere of fear left some questioning the situation.

Dr. Afshon Ostbar, a prominent scholar on Iran, asserted that domestic oppression is the regime’s most effective strategy for survival. “Oppressing citizens is relatively straightforward for them. The likelihood of Iran becoming more isolated and authoritarian—essentially mirroring North Korea—is high, as this may be their only means to retain power,” he indicated.

As the country grapples with its internal issues, the IRGC is reportedly experiencing fluctuating trust dynamics and potential purges. “Such actions wouldn’t happen without significant infiltration at the top levels,” Arabi remarked, citing a current urgency for the regime to reassess its inner workings.

The emerging generation of IRGC officers, predominantly those who have entered since 2000, tends to have more radical views. Their training now focuses excessively on ideological elements. Arabi pointed out that these factions are beginning to challenge senior leaders, accusing them of being lenient towards Israel or colluding with other powers.

Curiously, Arabi noted that the radical ideologies fostered by Khamenei to consolidate power may now be spiraling out of control. “He finds it increasingly difficult to manage them,” he remarked.

Should the proposed purges proceed, this shift could make the IRGC more volatile, both domestically and internationally. With the traditional military structure in disarray, terrorism may rise as a significant tactic for exerting influence.

Arabi concluded, “The key pillars of the regime—the militias, ballistic missile programs, and nuclear ambitions—are all now severely weakened. This leaves them with no choice but to resort to asymmetric warfare, including terrorism, under the guise of plausible deniability.”

In light of these drastic measures, Arabi argued that they reflect a position of vulnerability rather than strength. “If the Islamic Republic felt secure, there wouldn’t be a need for such extreme oppression,” he said. “It’s a reaction born out of fear. However, until the regime dismantles its oppressive measures, the roads will likely remain quiet—meaning a change in government seems improbable.”