SpaceX Valuation Insights Ahead of IPO
Financial research firm Morningstar has assessed SpaceX’s fair value at $63 per share. This figure indicates a significant 53 percent discount from the anticipated IPO price of $135 per share. Interestingly, some analysts suggest that the company’s value might increase beyond this IPO figure in the next year.
Morningstar’s evaluation, articulated by equity analyst Nicholas Owens, is rooted in mathematical modeling rather than doubts about SpaceX. The organization has considered various financial scenarios for SpaceX’s future and used probability-weighted outcomes to derive its valuation. Previously, Breitbart News noted that Morningstar’s estimate is roughly half of what Elon Musk’s IPO suggests.
Even at $63 per share, Morningstar believes there’s a solid potential for returns in two of its three considered scenarios. These scenarios depend on SpaceX’s ability to successfully produce a Starship rocket capable of frequent launches and to operationalize an orbital data center. However, both of these technical objectives remain unresolved, with no expected solutions before 2028.
In its most optimistic “moonshot” scenario, Morningstar pegs SpaceX’s value at $1.97 trillion, or $154 per share. This valuation exceeds the IPO’s price by 14 percent, which the stock might reach momentarily post-debut due to investor excitement. But, with only a 7 percent chance of this scenario occurring, it sheds light on why the fair value estimate is significantly lower than the moonshot figure.
Other research entities on Wall Street have shared their predictions as SpaceX approaches its Nasdaq launch. Oppenheimer has kicked off its coverage with an outperform rating and a price target of $190 over the next 12-18 months, suggesting a possible 40 percent rise from the IPO price. Analyst Timothy Horan emphasizes SpaceX’s diverse business model, suggesting it can leverage its ground computing expertise to realize efficiencies. He recognizes SpaceX as the singular vertically integrated AI firm equipped with the necessary resources, data, and engineering talent, noting that its space infrastructure is uniquely positioned.
On another note, New Street Research has begun coverage without assigning a rating, setting a 12-month price target of $165—indicating a potential gain of 22 percent from the IPO price. Analyst Pierre Ferragh predicts a major revenue leap for SpaceX, forecasting an increase from $18.7 billion in 2025 to $195 billion by 2030. He anticipates the company might start to see net profitability by 2027, following a reported net loss of $4.9 billion in 2025. Ferragh notes that if market opportunities expand and SpaceX captures a 50 percent share, the valuation could soar to $2.3 trillion, leading to a fair value of $330 per share.
