AMD’s Future Looks Bright After Export Restrictions Lifted

Before April 2025, AMD relied heavily on the Chinese market for a significant chunk of its revenue. However, the U.S. government introduced export restrictions that put a damper on those earnings.

Looking ahead, it seems AMD may soon have the green light to sell advanced AI chips to customers in China. This is expected to give the company a boost, especially in 2026.

Such a development could enable AMD to exceed Wall Street’s growth projections, possibly resulting in a sharp rise in its stock price.

As of now, AMD’s stock, traded under NASDAQ: AMD, is poised for a remarkable rally in 2025, having risen 78% this year. Still, recent trading trends suggest that some investors might be taking profits, as the stock has dropped 19% since reaching a 52-week high on October 29.

This dip seems to be tied closely to the booming sector of artificial intelligence (AI). With recent announcements from President Trump, companies like Nvidia, AMD, and Intel are now able to sell advanced chips to Chinese customers, setting the stage for AMD to regain that lost revenue stream in 2026.

Let’s take a moment to explore what’s driving AMD’s potential resurgence and why its stock might soon soar again.

In 2025, AMD’s business continued its upward trajectory, with annual revenue projected at $34 billion—31% higher than in 2024. However, things could have been even better. Since the Trump administration imposed restrictions on AI chip sales to China, AMD has been sidelined in that crucial market.

This has resulted in AMD shouldering $800 million in inventory costs during Q2. Given that China made up nearly a quarter of AMD’s $25.8 billion sales in 2024, losing that market certainly impacted revenue significantly.

Yet, despite these challenges, analysts anticipate a 20% increase in AMD’s earnings for 2025, bringing it to $3.97 per share. What’s more, there’s speculation that this could rise by 62% to $6.46 per share in the following year. I have a feeling the numbers may even exceed those expectations.

Consider Nvidia as a case study; the company is now authorized to sell its advanced H200 chips to Chinese customers. Previously, it could only sell a downgraded version of its chips, resulting in lower power and performance compared to the flagship offerings. This limitation doesn’t apply to AMD as much, especially now that the landscape is changing.

This change in policy could mean significant revenue for AMD in 2026, despite a forthcoming 25% tax on sales to China. Even previous sales of lower-tier MI308 processors were well-regarded in that market, and if AMD can capitalize on higher-end products, it could recover much of its lost revenue.

Indeed, the full-fledged GPUs from AMD will outperform their previous models significantly, paving the way for potentially higher sales than anticipated.

Analysts predict that AMD’s revenue could rise 31% to $44.6 billion in 2026. If the figures from China return to 2024 levels of around $6.2 billion, the overall revenue may skyrocket to approximately $51 billion. Interestingly, forecasts haven’t yet accounted for the effects of the new Trump administration policies, leaving the potential for growth largely unexplored.

If AMD does reach that $51 billion mark and keeps its current price-to-sales ratio of 11, its market cap could rise to $561 billion—a staggering 60% potential increase from today’s numbers. This could be an opportune moment to consider investing in AMD, especially given the recent stock pullback.

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