Approximately half of Americans indicate that food costs are a significant source of stress in their daily lives, and recent inflation data highlights that this pressure isn’t letting up.
Between July and August, grocery prices increased by 0.6%, marking the steepest monthly rise in nearly three years. Overall, they are up 2.7% compared to the same time last year. This comes after a period when prices had already surged, even before the pandemic.
Grocery inflation has notably decreased since its height in the summer of 2022, when it surpassed 13% year-on-year. Yet, uncertainties remain due to the impact of President Trump’s tariffs and stricter immigration policies.
While Trump’s trade policies have not significantly escalated consumer prices as some economists anticipated, certain products, particularly coffee, are starting to feel the pinch.
In August, coffee prices jumped by 3.6%, a sizable shift since 2011, and are now up 20.9% from last year. This increase can be attributed in part to droughts affecting Brazil and Vietnam, which are major exporters. Furthermore, Trump’s implemented 50% tariff on Brazilian coffee has added to the upward trend.
The U.S. heavily relies on imports for fresh produce. For instance, CPI data shows that tomato prices rose 4.5% last month, while lettuce increased by 3.5% and banana prices went up by 2.1%. Overall, fresh vegetable prices have seen a 3% rise in August, marking the largest monthly gain since 2020.
Continued limited beef supply is pushing prices to record highs. Recently, egg prices have decreased by about 40% since their peak in March, although they remain elevated compared to last year due to the lingering effects of bird flu.
Coffee
- Price increase: +20.9% from August 2024 to August 2025
- Average price: $8.87 per pound (Coffee, 100%, ground roast)
Ground roast coffee prices in the U.S. reached a record $8.87 per pound in August, up from $6.31 just a year prior. This surge is partially driven by erratic weather patterns in Brazil and Vietnam, affecting their production forecasts.
Unlike most food items that can be produced domestically, the U.S. completely depends on imports for coffee supply. Demand for coffee remains robust, and the tariffs on Brazilian goods have only intensified the situation.
Brazilian coffee exports to the U.S. dropped by 26% from July to August, according to the Brazilian coffee exporter group Sekaff, highlighting the negative impact of tariffs.
Beef and Veal
- Price increase: +13.9% from August 2024 to August 2025
- Average price: $6.32 per pound (100% minced beef)
Last month, the average price of ground beef was $6.32 per pound, a rise of over 13% from the previous year and nearly 60% since early 2021. The primary issue here remains supply and demand, as cattle stocks in the U.S. are at their lowest in almost 75 years. Meanwhile, consumer demand for steak and burgers stays strong.
To meet this demand, the U.S. has become the second largest importer of beef, spending £4.6 billion in 2024, mainly sourcing from Australia, Canada, and Brazil. However, tariffs on Brazilian beef may strain the supply chain further and push prices higher in the near future.
Additionally, the recent emergence of pests in Mexico has led to restrictions on cattle shipments from there, creating further challenges.
Eggs
- Price increase: +10.9% from August 2024 to August 2025
- Average price: $3.59 per dozen (Grade A, Large)
After peaking at $6.23 per dozen in March, egg prices have dropped to $3.59 in August, remaining about 11% higher than one year ago but moving in a more favorable direction.
Price fluctuations for eggs have been dramatic, largely due to the avian flu epidemic that decimated flocks. This “eggflation” prompted many to take drastic measures, such as raising chickens in their backyards, while others tried to import eggs illegally to help with the high prices.
The outbreak of bird flu has reportedly slowed, allowing the CDC to cease emergency response efforts as of July.
