Former Vice President Kamala Harris has chosen not to run for California governor next year, which opens up her path to what is likely to be a competitive field of Democratic candidates for the 2028 presidential election.
This decision has caught the eye of many within the Democratic Party, sparking speculation about potential candidates as operatives, donors, and lawmakers begin to consider their options for 2028.
Even though Harris was a contender last year, analysts point out that the race isn’t automatically hers.
“In today’s political landscape, it seems like no one feels bound by the presence of another candidate,” noted Steve Cher, a strategist who previously worked on former President Obama’s campaign in 2008.
For the first time since 2016, the upcoming presidential race won’t feature an incumbent president, setting the stage for a wide-open contest.
The Democratic primary is shaping up to be one of the most crowded in decades, with speculation that as many as 30 candidates might throw their hats into the ring.
Some prominent Democrats have already begun to make moves. Illinois Governor J.B. Pritzker recently visited New Hampshire, while former Transport Secretary Pete Buttigieg plans to remain in Michigan this October. Additionally, California Governor Gavin Newsom has started a podcast aimed at fostering discussions about politics with both Republicans and Democrats.
Meanwhile, Harris is working on a book, which may provide insight into her views on race leading up to 2024 and how former President Biden has shaped her political journey.
Having won her nomination, Harris is positioned as a frontrunner, especially after Biden’s unexpected decision to exit the race in July 2024.
However, there’s an underlying caution among party members about overly relying on Harris.
“It’s essential for Democrats to avoid elevating anyone too soon to the role of presumptive candidate,” stated Democratic strategist Basil Smikle. “Voters want to engage in debates about the future of the party, and that’s vital for a healthy process.”
Primary contests can serve as a major opportunity to refine both the message and the messenger, he added.
Initial polling on potential candidates for 2028 shows that although Harris is one of the frontrunners, she’s not alone. Buttigieg, Newsom, and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez are also in the mix, all having spent time making their presence known on the national stage.
Other notable names include Senator Cory Booker from New Jersey, Minnesota Governor Tim Walz, Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro, and Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer.
A recent McLaughlin poll indicated that Harris had the backing of 25% of respondents, while another survey from Atlascintel showed her at 14%. Buttigieg garnered 27% support, with Ocasio-Cortez at 19% and Newsom at 16%.
As Democrats grapple with an identity crisis, discussions about race are increasingly relevant.
While the left shows considerable energy, some party members feel there’s a need to reconnect with centrists and independents.
Harris’s loss to President Trump in the 2024 election could weigh heavily on her potential 2028 campaign, and some critics within the party suggest it might be time for a fresh direction.
“I sincerely believe we can’t just revisit the past,” remarked one Democratic donor. “We need new energy—running the same candidate again isn’t the answer.”
“Despite her efforts and strong performances, running again doesn’t quite align with the narrative of needing ‘fresh faces and ideas’ we’ve been searching for since November’s defeat,” they added.
Longtime Democratic strategist Garry South noted that past successes of the party often come from new candidates, citing Presidents Obama, Clinton, and Carter as examples. “Going back as far as JFK in 1960 shows the pattern,” he said.
South further emphasized that there’s a growing call for someone to guide the party through its current turmoil, suggesting Harris may not fit the bill.
In a recent CNN interview, David Axelrod, who advised Obama, indicated that while Harris might start strong as a leading contender, the path ahead would be challenging as many Democrats are eager to move on.
Some strategists anticipate that if Harris does decide to run, her term as Biden’s vice president could emerge as a contentious topic.
“Her experience might be viewed as a double-edged sword,” noted Cal Jillson, a political science professor. “While it gives her some credentials, it also opens up opportunities for her rivals to portray her as vulnerable.”
However, Harris’s supporters argue that she ran a commendable race in 2024, all while stepping in with limited time left in the campaign and coming close to victory.
One ally remarked, “She felt the momentum was with her, so why wouldn’t she run again?” pointing out that the party shouldn’t dismiss someone who was nearly victorious.
Notably, Harris’s strength could position her well for another nomination in 2028, as Cher emphasized, “Nominations often involve strong support from Black women in the South, and Harris can’t be easily overlooked.”
“Underestimating her would be a mistake,” he concluded.
