Fears continue to grow in the Middle East over the threat of a regional conflict between Israel and Iran, following the assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh late last month and Tehran’s vow this week to attack the state of Israel.
But while Israel faces its greatest enemy, it also faces a potentially even more lethal threat on its border: Hezbollah.
“The big X-factor here is Hezbollah,” Jonathan Conricus, a former Israel Defense Forces (IDF) spokesman and now a senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies (FDD), told Fox News Digital. “Hezbollah has a strong military presence.”
“They have national-level capabilities,” he added.
Hezbollah fighters formed a human barrier during the funeral procession for slain Hezbollah commander Fouad Shukr in the southern outskirts of Beirut on August 1. (Khaled Desouki/AFP via Getty Images)
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The terrorist group has received significant support from Iran for many years, including weapons, technological know-how and about $700 million in annual aid, the report said. Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Galant.
But it’s not just their strategic capabilities that make them a threat that must be countered, Conricus explained, but also the group’s proximity to Israel.
Hezbollah is based along Lebanon’s northern border with Israel and has plagued Israeli security agencies since its founding in 1982 after Israel’s invasion of Lebanon in retaliation for a series of border clashes with the Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO).
Israel is currently surrounded by nearly 20 terrorist organizations, most of which are backed by Iran and have been dubbed Tehran’s “Ring of Fire.”
An arch honoring Hezbollah and featuring pictures of its leader Hassan Nasrallah (right) and Iran’s spiritual leader Ali Khamenei is displayed on a street in a southern suburb of Beirut on January 16, 2011. A draft indictment alleging Hezbollah’s involvement in the 2005 murder of Lebanese Prime Minister Rafik Hariri is expected to be submitted in secret to the Special Tribunal for Lebanon on January 17, 2011. AFP PHOTO/ANWAR AMRO (Photo by ANWAR AMRO/AFP via Getty Images) (Anwar Amro/AFP via Getty Images)
In response to the growing threat, Jerusalem developed a security system called the Iron Dome, which began operation in 2011 and has repeatedly succeeded in blocking most projectiles aimed at Israel. But the recent war in Gaza has shown that the Iron Dome is not foolproof and that militant groups can evade the defense system, raising concerns.
Security experts agree that Tehran would likely adopt a multi-layered approach in its next attack on the Jewish state, relying on proxy forces like Hezbollah to overwhelm the defenses of Israel, the U.S. and the U.K. Conricus believes this operational strategy could be successful.
Firefighters battle a blaze sparked by Hezbollah rockets and drones in the Israeli city of Kiryat Shemona on June 3. More than 30 firefighting units worked through the night to put out the wildfire. (Erez Ben Simon/TPS-IL)
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“Hezbollah has powerful rocket and missile capabilities that could temporarily pose a significant threat to Israel’s air defenses, even with the cooperation of its allies coming to Israel’s aid,” said the 24-year IDF veteran.
Conricus said Hezbollah has been able to “stockpile” weapons from Iran, China and Russia despite a UN Security Council ban on non-governmental organisations collecting arms in Lebanon.
A former IDF spokesman said he believes Hezbollah has only demonstrated a quarter of its offensive capability so far and that Jerusalem has made it clear it will not take any attack by the terror group lightly, preparing the region for a brutal showdown.
Israeli security forces and medics evacuate wounded and local residents at the site of an alleged Lebanese attack in the Israeli village of Majdal Shams on July 27, 2024. (Jalaa MAREY/AFP) (Jalaa MAREY/AFP via Getty Images) (ALAA MAREY/AFP via Getty Images)
“Israel is signaling that this is not a second Lebanon war. Given what is at stake for Israel, this will be a more intense and powerful response from Israel, with fewer constraints and restrictions,” Conricus said. The 34-day war of 2006 The attack killed 120 IDF soldiers and 40 Israeli civilians, as well as 1,100 Lebanese civilians and Hezbollah fighters.
Israel, the United States and Britain have moved quickly to bolster their defensive and offensive capabilities, leaving security experts speculating about how and when Iran might strike after it threatened to attack Jerusalem on Monday.
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Following an emergency meeting of the Organisation of Islamic Cooperation (OIC) in Saudi Arabia on Wednesday at the request of Iran and the Palestinian Authority, Iran’s Acting Foreign Minister Bagheri Ali Bagheri Kani said Tehran would respond to Haniyeh’s killing in an “appropriate” manner at an “appropriate time”. The BBC reported:.
US officials reportedly expect the OIC to contribute to easing tensions, while Iranian officials told member states that Iran is “expected” to help.
Netanyahu said Thursday that Israel would “demand a very high price for any act of aggression against us, from whatever quarter.” (Ma’ayan Toaf (GPO))
The OIC later issued a statement saying Israel was “fully responsible” for the “heinous attack” – although Jerusalem has not claimed responsibility – but did not voice support for Iranian military action.
Iran attacked Israel with around 300 missiles and drones in April, and Conricus predicts that its next attack will be two to three times as large.
“The challenge for Iran is that this [reason for the] “The delay is because they are in uncharted territory and they have to fight for themselves,” Conricus said. “They are treading carefully and trying to calculate what Israel’s response to an Iranian attack would be and what it would cost them.”
On October 8, 2023, a missile fired from Israel’s Iron Dome missile defense system attempted to intercept a rocket fired from the Gaza Strip over the southern Israeli city of Netivot. (Mahmoud Hamus/AFP via Getty Images)
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Conricus called Iran’s threat against Israel on Monday “unprecedented”, but said Haniyeh’s killing not only in Tehran but also in a compound closely guarded by the Iranian Revolutionary Guards was “salt in the wound”.
Iran is now gearing up for a confrontation with Israel and its Western allies and cannot rely solely on proxy fighters such as Hezbollah, Hamas, Islamic Jihad and the Houthis to pursue its strategic objectives.
“They’re in uncharted territory. They really have to fight,” Conricus said, “and the Iranians are not used to fighting for themselves.”
