Inflation in swing states is lower than the national average

Inflation rates in several battleground states for the 2024 election are below the national average, in some cases by more than 1 percentage point, according to a The Hill analysis of local labor department data. This is because food prices are declining even as housing prices are rising.

Recent polls show that the economy and inflation are top concerns for Americans heading into the election._, This is particularly important in states where Trump and Biden are campaigning. Seven states are expected to decide the election: Arizona, Michigan, Wisconsin, Georgia, Pennsylvania, Nevada, and North Carolina.

YouGov’s April poll on CBS News ranked “the economy” and “inflation” as the two biggest problems in the United States today.

Relatively lenient pricing in key counties and precincts may influence candidate selection at polling stations, as research suggests incumbent presidents tend to win elections when economic conditions are better. It is possible to give

“Differences in inflation rates could actually have a significant impact in battleground states,” Jeremy Hopedahl, an economist at the University of Central Arkansas, told The Hill.

The annual national inflation rate was 3.5% as of March. After falling sharply from a high of 9% in mid-2022, it has hovered between 3% and 3.7% since June last year.

Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell acknowledged Wednesday that there has been no progress toward the Fed’s 2% target rate, saying, “So far this year, the data doesn’t tell us anything.” said. [the] More confidence to start lowering interest rates.”

Economists say the decline in swing-state inflation could be directly driven by rising interest rates and related to home prices, which are currently a major driver of overall inflation.

Different regions of the country have different zoning and permitting rules that could have handled housing cost pressures more effectively, and they may be concentrated in 2024 battleground states.

“We know that housing affordability varies from country to country. To meet the additional demand created during the pandemic, we need to build more, and some regions of the country They’re good at building more buildings,” Claudia Sahm, a former Fed economist now at New Century Advisors, told The Hill. “Those were areas where demand could be met.”

“At the end of the day, what’s on the kitchen table should influence how people vote,” she says.

Some economists see small differences in inflation as trivial for election results.
Dean Baker, an economist at the Center for Economic Policy Research, a left-leaning think tank, told The Hill that “small differences in inflation between states don’t matter much,” adding that visible changes in housing costs are important in elections. conditioned that it could have an impact.

“We know that rents for sold units have stopped rising rapidly and may even be falling slightly. This will be a big help if people see it “Also, if we see lower mortgage rates before the election, that would likely be an advantage for Biden.”

arizona

In Maricopa County, Arizona, where Biden became the second Democrat since Harry Truman to snatch victory from Trump in 2020, consumer price inflation in Phoenix County was last reported in February of this year. The annual rate was only 2.2%. Area by Ministry of Labor.

Food prices in Phoenix have fallen 0.4% since February 2023, with meat prices down more than 3% and dairy prices down more than 5%. Housing costs are still rising in line with the rest of the country, with housing costs rising by 2.7% and base rents rising by 4.1%.

Maricopa County’s inflation rate of 2.2% is also notable, down from a high of 13% in 2022. This is a full 4 percentage points higher than the national peak of 9% reached in the same year. This is a drop in price growth of more than 10% in less than two years, and nearly double his 5.5% decline experienced nationally.

Phoenix’s unemployment rate is 2.6 percent, which is also significantly better than the national unemployment rate of 3.8 percent.a Recent analysis by USA Today Arizona was found to be the third-best state to live in, based on income levels and costs of basic necessities.

michigan

Michigan, where President Trump visited Saginaw County on Wednesday just six weeks after Biden’s own visit, is also a battleground state where inflation in the Detroit-Warren-Dearborn area is 2.8%, well below the national average. be.

Inflation has declined more in the metro area than in the U.S. as a whole, down from a high of 9.7% in June 2022.

Shelter costs are more expensive in the Detroit area, but certain foods like meat and dairy products are cheaper. Saginaw County’s unemployment rate was 5.2% as of March of this year, higher than the national rate.

Kent County, a battleground state, had an unemployment rate of 3.1% in February. The unemployment rate in the Grand Rapids area was also higher than the national rate at 3.2% that month, but weekly wages were $217 below the U.S. average.

georgia

The economy surrounding Atlanta, Georgia, has many electorally critical counties and has seen dynamic changes in voting patterns in recent years, with the inflation rate falling to 3.3% in February from a high of 11.5% in 2022. , which speaks to a more powerful situation.

The unemployment rate in the Atlanta area was 3.0% in January, compared to 3.9% nationally, and the average weekly wage was $37 above the national level. Cobb County, Georgia, which has seceded from the Republican Party in recent years and has become a hot spot, had a low unemployment rate of 2.7%.

Although Atlanta’s headline inflation rate is 0.2 percentage points lower than the national CPI, both food and energy inflation rates are significantly higher, with food prices increasing at an annualized rate of 3.9% and energy costs increasing by 3.6% in February. This compares with his 1.9 percent deflation in energy costs when measured at the national level.

wisconsin

Regional inflation data for Wisconsin, which is listed below neighboring Minnesota by the Department of Labor, shows a similar picture with lower-than-average price increases in the upper Midwest at 2.7%.

Food prices are down 2.1% over the year, with fruits and vegetables 6.7% cheaper than in 2023. Deflation in some energy sectors and car prices has been offset by higher housing inflation, as expected.

Two hotly contested “boomerang counties” in Wisconsin are Door County and Sauk County, which voted for former President Barack Obama, then Trump, and most recently Biden.

Data from Door County’s neighboring Kewaunee County shows an unemployment rate of 2.9%, nearly one percentage point higher than the national average, and the same holds true for neighboring Brown County. Madison, which is close to Sauk County, has a very low unemployment rate of 2.3%.

pennsylvania

Economic conditions in Pennsylvania’s metropolitan areas more accurately reflect the national situation than in other battleground states, with inflation rates in the Philadelphia area dropping from a high of 8.8% in 2022 to a high of 8.8% in February. It dropped to 3.4%.

While food and housing pressures are both putting pressure on household budgets, energy deflation is providing some leeway in prices, with household energy costs falling by more than 3% over the year.

Economic conditions in Erie County, Boomerang County, are less favorable, with an unemployment rate of 4% and weekly wages well below the national average by $357.

Nevada and North Carolina

The Department of Labor does not track price data for metropolitan areas in either Nevada or North Carolina, so only broader area-level data is available for those states.

Inflation rates are higher than average at 3.6% per year in the west and 3.8% in the south.

But North Carolina economists have touted the state’s affordability because of its relatively homogeneous distribution of rural areas.

Mike Walden, an agricultural economist at North Carolina State University, said, “According to 2022 federal data (the most recent data available), the same products and services purchased by households cost less in North Carolina than in the nation. It was 5.8% lower.” January overview.

“Housing costs…are 18 percent lower than national costs. A big reason is that the percentage of North Carolinians living in rural areas of the state is more than twice the national rate,” he noted.

Carson City, Las Vegas and Reno have higher unemployment rates than the national average, with Nevada’s average in March at 5.1%. North Carolina’s unemployment rate in March was in line with the national average of 3.5%.