President Donald Trump has expressed concerns that Iran is developing a missile capable of reaching the United States soon, which, of course, raises alarms given its weapons program already targets U.S. military forces throughout the Middle East.
While officials maintain that Iran lacks missiles that can hit the U.S. mainland directly, their existing ballistic missile capabilities could feasibly reach significant U.S. military bases in the Gulf. This situation has become a pivotal issue in the ongoing nuclear negotiations.
What Iran can attack now
Analysts generally agree that Iran holds the largest ballistic missile arsenal in the Middle East. Its collection primarily consists of short- and intermediate-range missiles, with the furthest ones allegedly reaching about 2,000 kilometers (roughly 1,200 miles).
This range effectively covers a broad spectrum of U.S. military infrastructure scattered across the Gulf. Notable installations within targeting distance include:
- Forward headquarters of U.S. Central Command at Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar
- Naval Support Activities Bahrain, which houses the U.S. 5th Fleet
- Camp Arifjan in Kuwait, serving as the Army’s main logistics and command hub
- Ali Al Salem Air Base in Kuwait, used by U.S. Air Force units
- Prince Sultan Air Base in Saudi Arabia
- Al Dhafra Air Base in the United Arab Emirates
- Muwafaq-Sorti Air Base in Jordan, with stationed U.S. military aircraft
Despite a recent withdrawal of U.S. forces from some areas, including the transfer of Iraq’s al-Asad air base to Iraqi control, major facilities in the Gulf remain vulnerable to Iran’s current missile capabilities.
Recently, some U.S. officials indicated that personnel at the Navy’s 5th Fleet headquarters in Bahrain were reduced to “mission-critical” levels amid escalating tensions, though others within the military contested that assessment, clarifying that no one had been ordered to leave the region.
Simultaneously, the United States has ramped up its naval and air deployments in the area. The USS Abraham Lincoln Carrier Strike Group is operational in the Arabian Sea, along with several destroyers in the eastern Mediterranean, Red Sea, and Persian Gulf. The USS Gerald R. Ford Carrier Strike Group is on its way as well, bolstered by a variety of U.S. Air Force fighter jets positioned in Jordan, Saudi Arabia, and Bahrain.
Iran has shown a willingness to use ballistic missiles against American interests before. For instance, in January 2020, it launched over a dozen missiles targeting U.S. positions in Iraq, following the assassination of Qasem Soleimani, a key commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. This incident shed light on the vulnerability of U.S. forces stationed nearby.
Can Iran reach Europe?
Most publicly known Iranian missile systems are reported to have a maximum range of about 2,000 kilometers. This could potentially strike parts of southeastern Europe, like Greece, Bulgaria, and Romania, where around 80,000 U.S. troops are currently positioned.
However, to significantly extend their reach into Europe would necessitate missile systems beyond what Iran has demonstrated so far.
Can Iran attack the U.S.?
As it stands, Iran does not possess intercontinental ballistic missiles capable of striking the U.S. mainland. To hit the East Coast of the U.S., a missile would require a range around 10,000 kilometers, which far exceeds Iran’s known capabilities.
That said, U.S. intelligence has warned that Iran’s space launch vehicle initiatives could someday pave the way for long-range missiles. A recent threat overview indicated that Iran might develop a military-grade intercontinental ballistic missile capability by 2035 if it chooses to pursue that path.
Some U.S. officials are particularly concerned about Iran’s recent advancements in space launch vehicles, citing that technology that enables these vehicles is quite similar to that used in ballistic missile development.
For now, Iran lacks operational intercontinental ballistic missiles, and its existing arsenal does not yet pose a direct threat to the U.S. mainland.
U.S. Missile Defense – Capable but Limited
The U.S. employs a multilayered missile defense system to protect both its forces and allies in the region. This system includes THAAD, Patriot, and carrier-based interceptors. Nevertheless, the inventory of these interceptors is somewhat limited.
Analysts noted that during a missile exchange in June 2025 between Iran and Israel, more than 150 THAAD interceptors were fired, about a quarter of what is currently funded by the Pentagon. This raises concerns regarding long-term sustainability of defenses against increasing missile threats, particularly given the substantial cost disparity between Iranian missiles and U.S. interceptors.
Missile program complicates negotiations
The matter of Iran’s ballistic missile program has surfaced as a significant hurdle in ongoing diplomatic discussions between Washington and Tehran. Secretary of State Marco Rubio has highlighted that Iran’s refusal to discuss limitations on its missile capabilities is problematic, as Tehran views its arsenal as central to its regional security.
Current talks primarily address Iran’s nuclear program, but U.S. officials argue that ballistic missiles can’t be divorced from nuclear concerns. Meanwhile, Iranian officials claim their missile program is purely defensive and off-limits in these negotiations.
As these discussions progress, the situation remains clear: while Iran can’t currently strike the U.S. mainland with ballistic missiles, U.S. forces throughout the Middle East remain at risk from Tehran’s existing missile capabilities, and any advancements in the future are a source of serious concern for security analysts.
