Israel Set for Elections Amid Ongoing Conflict
Ofir Katz, who heads the Israeli Parliamentary Union that backs Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, announced on Sunday that national elections are scheduled for October 27. This will be the first election since the recent Gaza conflict, which escalated dramatically with the kidnappings and killings of numerous Israeli civilians on October 7, 2023.
The Israeli parliament was nearly unanimously disbanded on May 20, paving the way for these elections. In the 120-seat chamber, the dissolution vote resulted in 106 in favor, with no votes against it.
The push to dissolve the parliament was, in part, a response from some members of Netanyahu’s ruling coalition and ultra-Orthodox MPs, who expressed a lack of confidence in the prime minister. They were disappointed with his decision not to advance a bill that would allow Orthodox Christians to avoid conscription into the military.
Netanyahu’s coalition opted to support the dissolution vote, believing it would give them some control over setting the election dates. Some factions wanted the elections to occur in September, before a Jewish holiday, to potentially increase voter turnout. However, the default election date of October 27, which is 90 days after the parliament’s dissolution, will remain in place. This marks a significant moment as it will be the first time in 40 years that elections are held as scheduled, and if Netanyahu stays in power, he would be the first Israeli prime minister in decades to complete a full term.
Nevertheless, having a say in the timeline may not be enough for Netanyahu and his coalition to retain their positions. Current opinion polls indicate that Netanyahu and his Likud party are lacking a majority, while the opposing camp is inching closer to one. A recent report highlighted that former military leader Gadi Eisenkot is leading in the polls against Netanyahu, with his newly formed Yashar party projected to secure more seats than Likud if elections were held today.
Eisenkot has been a strong critic of the draft exemption policies that have created rifts within the Likud coalition. Having lost family in the Gaza War, he has taken Netanyahu to task for what he sees as an overly aggressive approach towards Hamas, while Netanyahu has countered by accusing him of being too lenient on Palestinian militants.
In addition, former Prime Minister Naftali Bennett seems to be struggling, particularly after forming an alliance with Yair Lapid. Their new Together party is currently polling at under 18 seats.
Netanyahu faces significant criticism over various issues, including the security lapses leading up to the October 7 attacks, the management of the ongoing conflict in Gaza, and responses to threats from Iran and Hezbollah. At 76, he is also dealing with health issues, including the installation of a pacemaker and past battles with prostate cancer, all while being embroiled in a long-standing corruption controversy.
Supporters of Netanyahu argue that despite all these challenges, he continues to wield considerable political power. They believe that forming a coalition against him may prove more challenging than maintaining support for his current administration, acknowledging him as a seasoned political survivor who often defies expectations.
