Trying to guess who might snag the NBA MVP title on any given day is almost impossible. The last No. 1 overall pick to take home this honor was Derrick Rose in 2008. As the league grapples with what’s been termed a tanking crisis, the next No. 1 to succeed needs to go back years to LeBron James (2003) or Tim Duncan (1997). Victor Wembanyama is likely to change that trend soon, but it brings up a curious question: when will we see another American-born player earn the MVP title?
The most recent American MVP was James Harden in 2018. Since then, the accolades have gone to Giannis Antetokounmpo (twice), Nikola Jokic (three times), Joel Embiid (once), and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (twice). Interestingly, Embiid was the only one drafted in the top 10. With the 65-game eligibility requirement for the MVP, it’s technically possible—though I’d say unlikely—that Wembanyama could win it a few times down the line. It might be quite a while until we see another American-born MVP.
When pondering who the next American MVP might be, you have to think, well, more long-term. Given the current gap among stars like SGA, Wembanyama, Luka Doncic, and others, it seems likely that the next American NBA MVP hasn’t even stepped onto the court yet. So, let’s consider some potential candidates.
I already missed the window and never got closer
Donovan Mitchell: He’s been touted as the top American player currently. However, he’s never been in the top five for MVP voting and is about to turn 30, which might make that dream a bit out of reach.
Jalen Brunson: Although it’s a slim chance, Brunson might have better odds for Finals MVP than MVP overall. He’s a solid scorer and creator, but with only one fifth-place MVP finish to show, and approaching 30, the chances seem slim.
Jaylen Brown: He’s worth noting for his recent performance, yet he’s not even the top player on his own team, much less the league.
Young veteran with opportunity
Anthony Edwards: He’s a strong contender. At just 24, he’s already among the league’s best. If he continues to progress, he could become the face of American basketball. Might the Timberwolves trade Rudy Gobert, allowing him more freedom? That could lead to significant growth in his game. It’s remarkable how much he’s improved since his draft, especially in his shooting—so he certainly has MVP potential down the road.
Jayson Tatum: Now 28, he’s already earned two fourth-place MVP finishes. After returning from a torn Achilles, Tatum looks promising. He was a favorite for MVP before the injury, but will that change since he’s still recovering? The Celtics have consistently been strong, and if he can regain his former level of play, who knows what might happen?
Cade Cunningham: He had an impressive season, guiding his team to 60 wins as a 24-year-old, fulfilling early expectations as the No. 1 pick in 2021. With room for improvement in his efficiency, he could elevate his game further with better spacing. Though it seems Detroit might benefit from pairing him with another ball handler, it’s uncertain if they will take that step. He is among the leading prospects, although he’s still maturing.
Evan Mobley: A couple of years back, Mobley was high on the MVP list, but his growth has stalled recently. He shows promise on defense and is a decent offensive player, yet he hasn’t reached MVP caliber.
LaMelo Ball: I can’t help but hold on to hope for LaMelo. I had him rated as the top pick in 2020, and he seemed to put everything together this season. The Hornets showed strength in their performances. If they can maintain that momentum and claim a top spot in the East next season, perhaps Ball could slip into MVP talks.
Chet Holmgren: Holmgren is often seen as a parallel to Wembanyama. He feels like a top player and just celebrated his 24th birthday. I believe he can elevate his performance, but that depends on the role he’s given with the Thunder. If he stays in that environment, it’s tough to see him being the best player on his team.
Tyrese Haliburton: He seemed poised for MVP talks at the 2025 NBA Finals before suffering an Achilles injury. Can he bounce back? It’s a tough road, but certainly feasible. If the Pacers find themselves as contenders again next season, Haliburton could be crucial to their success.
Cooper Flagg: Flagg, the NBA’s youngest rookie, had an impressive season despite being positioned as a primary point guard for the first time. Given that prime years usually unfold between ages 24 and 28, he won’t fully hit that stride until the 2030-31 season. If he becomes a significant player before turning 24, that would set a remarkable standard. It would be interesting to see him return to form as a dominant defender while managing his offensive responsibilities.
Cameron Boozer: In my view, Boozer stands out as the top prospect for the 2026 NBA Draft. He was a standout at Duke and secured the Player of the Year award almost unanimously. While there are concerns about his athleticism, to reach MVP status, he may need to develop his 3-point shooting or aim for a triple-double.
Darrin Peterson: Just a year and a half back, he scored 58 points in a high school game. Though he struggled at Kansas with injuries, it was clear he has the potential as a 3-point shooter. If he’s healthy and shows promise, he could be among the most exciting scoring guards in the upcoming draft.
AJ Divanza: He’s a gifted shot creator with notable length. While he’s not flawless, if paired with players who complement his style, he might emerge as a leading talent on a top-tier team. However, he’ll need to make significant strides in areas like shooting and defense to contend for MVP.
Tyran Stokes: Stokes is tipped to be the top pick in the 2027 NBA Draft, known for his scoring ability and defensive skills. Still, there are some doubts regarding his mental game. An NBA scout remarked on his readiness, highlighting a lack of life experience. Winning habits might take time to develop, but his talent is undeniable.
Rhys Robinson: At just 16, Robinson won’t be eligible for the Draft until 2029. He’s a tall point guard with international playing experience, even though he’s still in that pipeline. It’s surprising to even consider someone born in 2010 for this list, but the idea of Wembanyama enhancing the competition is quite compelling.
Joaquin Buntier: Buntier, who arrived at Duke at 17, won’t be draft-eligible until 2028. Standing nearly 7 feet tall, he possesses perimeter skills. If all goes well, he might develop into a formidable player by 2036.
Predict the next American-born NBA MVP
So, who’s likely to become the next American-born NBA MVP? Here, we rank the hopefuls.
Share your thoughts on who you believe will be the next American-born NBA MVP in the comments below.
