Michigan Gubernatorial Race Update

Representative John James appears to be the frontrunner for the Republican nomination in Michigan’s 2026 gubernatorial race, based on recent polling data.

A survey from Plymouth Union Public (PUP) indicates that James is leading in a hypothetical general election scenario, garnering 35% support among likely voters. The Democratic candidate follows closely behind with 31%, while Detroit Mayor Mike Duggan, who is running as an independent, receives 12%. Interestingly, the same poll reflects that James has a significant edge over other contenders in the primary.

James’s main rival is former Republican Attorney General Mike Cox, who, despite his past prominence, is trailing in the polls. In a three-way race involving a Democrat, Cox is at 28%, while the Democratic candidate leads with 31% and Duggan holds 15%.

James, who is an Army veteran and has served three terms in Congress, announced his bid for the governorship in April. He aims to succeed Democratic Governor Gretchen Whitmer, who is unable to run due to term limits. Previously, James made notable attempts in the 2018 and 2020 Senate races.

Initial assessments from the nonpartisan Cook Political Report regard the gubernatorial election as a “toss-up.” Current public sentiment suggests that Republican candidates enjoy a slight advantage over their Democratic counterparts in the upcoming election.

Historically, open gubernatorial races in Michigan have favored Republicans, as seen when three previous governors were unseated by their opponents.

With the retirement of Democratic Senator Gary Peters, the open Senate seat might further motivate Republican voters in the midterm elections.

The survey was conducted between October 8 and 9, with responses from 600 general election voters. Most respondents provided answers via phone, while a smaller portion used text and web methods.

James has maintained a solid lead in the Republican primary, earning support from 41% of likely primary voters, compared to just 7% for Cox. Other candidates, like state Senate Minority Leader Aric Nesbitt and ex-Michigan House Speaker Tom Leonard, garnered less than 5%. Among conservative voters, James’s advantage was even greater, securing 49% against Cox’s 6%.

The findings align with an internal poll from James’s campaign conducted in mid-August, indicating a substantial lead over his rivals. There are several candidates in the Democratic primary as well, with Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson likely emerging as the Democratic nominee, according to other recent polls.