Traders on the prediction market Calci are increasingly betting that Graham Platner, the Democratic candidate for Senator in Maine, will withdraw from the race by next week. Just this Tuesday morning, the likelihood of his exit jumped from nearly zero to about 94%, indicating a strong belief among traders that his campaign is in serious trouble following recent allegations against him. Total trading volume in this market has exceeded $4.4 million.
While prediction markets don’t dictate political outcomes, the increase in betting points to a growing skepticism about Platner’s campaign viability. He is competing against five-term Republican Senator Susan Collins in what is considered one of the most closely watched Senate races in the country.
Recent controversies, specifically the allegations of rape that surfaced on Monday, have intensified scrutiny around Platner. The Democratic Party has distanced itself from him rapidly, with prominent figures demanding he suspend his campaign. Notably, Senator Elizabeth Warren, a notable supporter, rescinded her endorsement after previously praising Platner.
In a recent statement, Warren emphasized that “with so much at stake,” it would be best for Platner to step down and address these serious claims outside of the political arena. Other Democrats, including California’s Rep. Ro Khanna, also withdrew their support and urged him to consider exiting the race. Senators Martin Heinrich and Ruben Gallego made similar moves, although Gallego didn’t explicitly ask Platner to withdraw.
The pressure on Platner escalated after Jenny Racicot from Maine accused him of rape nearly five years ago, claiming he entered her apartment while intoxicated and assaulted her despite her objections. Platner has denied these allegations, stating he is “taking time to reflect on the best path forward” for his campaign.
Despite the controversies surrounding him, including past social media scrutiny and allegations of offensive behavior, Platner has risen as a prominent figure in the Democratic Party this year. He gained national attention for his populist approach and outsider persona. However, recent events have cast a shadow over his candidacy, challenging his previously smooth campaign trajectory.
