Trump Voters’ Economic Sentiment Turns Negative

The atmosphere among American conservatives has shifted notably in recent weeks, especially following the onset of conflict with Iran. There’s been a marked increase in the number of Republicans, Trump supporters, and those identifying as MAGA supporters who are notably less optimistic about the economy than just a couple of months ago.

Recent polling from YouGov indicates that nearly 59% of American adults perceive the economy as deteriorating. This represents the highest level of concern since October 2023, showing a 9-point increase from January. Only 16% believe the economy is improving, which is a decline from 25% earlier this year—the lowest level since Trump assumed office.

The downward trend seems to stem from a broader decline in national economic sentiment, particularly among Republicans and Trump supporters. Back in early January, 57% of Republicans viewed the economy positively, while 14% considered it to be declining. In a recent poll conducted from March 13-16, only 37% noted improvements, and 24% felt things were getting worse.

In January, 57% of Trump voters reported feeling positively about the economy; that number has now dropped to 41%. For conservatives in general, the number claiming economic improvement fell from 59% to 40%.

Pollsters have increasingly categorized respondents, with YouGov developing a specific grouping for MAGA Supporters. In a survey from early February, 63% of MAGA supporters felt the economy was improving. In the latest poll, that figure has decreased to 47%.

This downturn can’t entirely be dismissed as a manifestation of “Trump Derangement Syndrome” or simple partisanship. Democrats generally view the economy quite bleakly, and independents share similar concerns. Yet, the uplifting sentiment that Trump once inspired among his base seems to be fading.

A Growing Pessimism Across Demographics

Older Americans have notably adjusted their views on the economy, becoming less optimistic than younger age groups. In fact, the percentage of adults aged 65 and older who believe the economy is improving has plummeted from 33% in January to 18% in March. Similarly, optimism among those aged 45 to 64 shrank from 30% to 19%, and for those aged 30 to 44, it fell from 22% to 15%. Interestingly, the viewpoints of younger voters have remained stable, with only 11% believing in economic improvement.

Minority groups, including Black and Hispanic Americans, continue to report dire economic situations, with just 6% and 16%, respectively, expressing that things are improving. Among white Americans, the perception of improvement has dropped significantly; in January, 31% felt positively, but that has now fallen to only 19%.

The educational divide regarding economic perceptions seems to have diminished. Those without a college degree are now just as skeptical as those who have a degree. A February poll found that 23% of non-college-educated adults believed the economy was improving, compared to 18% of college graduates. Currently, only 16% from both groups express a positive outlook on the economy.

Both men and women are losing their optimistic views on the economy. In January, 30% of men and 15% of women felt things were going well. Now, those numbers have dropped to 21% for men and 12% for women.

Personal Finances Are Not the Issue… Yet

The shift toward a more pessimistic outlook on the economy does not seem tied to how Americans feel about their own financial situations. Back in February, 25% of Republicans and similar percentages among MAGA supporters and conservatives believed they were better off than a year ago. Now, those figures are 23%, 31%, 25%, and 26%, respectively, suggesting only slight changes.