Trade policy uncertainty and supply are related to fuel purchases
The latest surge follows a 50-cent jump in two sessions driven by new short cover and geopolitical tensions. The market responded sharply to President Trump's new tariffs in Canada, China and Mexico, with traders revealing the possibility of retaliation. However, the administration's proposal regarding the possibility of compromise has led to further uncertainty.
Meanwhile, the US storage deficit remains a key driver. The shortage exceeding 250 BCF BC, and the supply outlook is rising tight as no significant improvement is expected in the short term. Furthermore, Canada cuts exports to the US, tightens domestic supply even further, and strong LNG exports continue to provide fundamental support.
Weather forecast provides mixed signal
The latest Natgasweather forecast shows volatile patterns through mid-March. A powerful system is expected to bring rain and snow, but temperatures fluctuate widely. In the southern and eastern US, highly mild conditions occurred in the 50s and 80s, resulting in a decline in overall demand. However, if the temperatures in the north are cold, it can prevent a significant storage recovery and maintain a medium-supportive background.
Market forecast: Potential potential dependency on critical resistance
Natural gas futures are at a crossroads. A decisive break above $4.551 could push the price to $4.805, with strong momentum supporting the bull. However, the market is very sensitive to changes in weather models and the development of trade policies. If the price doesn't exceed $4.147, it could last deeper pullbacks to $3.742, or even a 50-day moving average of $3.511. Traders should closely monitor tariff negotiations and storage reports as the key driver for upcoming sessions.
Details of the economic calendar.
