New Jersey Governor Race Heating Up

Recent polling suggests that Republicans might be gaining traction in the race to succeed term-limited Democratic Governor Phil Murphy of New Jersey.

In a survey released on October 28th by Quantus Insights, Democratic candidate Mikie Sherrill is ahead of Republican contender Jack Ciattarelli by a narrow margin of 3 points, with 49% supporting Sherrill and 46% backing Ciattarelli. It’s an important finding, particularly in the context of how the state might tilt in the 2024 presidential election.

New Jersey has long been a solid Democratic bastion. For instance, in 2020, President Joe Biden won the state comfortably. However, Trump had a surprisingly close race, losing by just 6 points in 2024. Given Ciattarelli’s previous near-win against Murphy in 2021, his campaign has a chance to flip the script.

Among those likely to vote by mail, Sherrill is expected to outperform Ciattarelli—but interestingly, only about 20% of voters indicated they might choose that option. Conversely, nearly half of the respondents (49%) plan to vote in person on Election Day, where Ciattarelli currently leads Sherrill by a significant 21 points.

Despite Sherrill’s slight lead overall, there’s a notable sentiment among voters, with 53% believing that their neighbors are more inclined to support Ciattarelli. This hint of “shy Trump voters”—those who might be hesitant to reveal their support in polls due to social pressures—could play a critical role. It’s a bit concerning; when these individuals do show up to vote, they tend to lean Republican.

Historically, the last Republican to win New Jersey’s governorship was Chris Christie in 2013. If Ciattarelli manages to secure a victory, it might not only shift the state’s approach to key issues like taxes, education, and housing but could also embolden Republican efforts in traditionally blue areas across the country. This would suggest that Trump’s impact could extend beyond a single election cycle.