Indian equity market benchmark indices Sensex and Nifty 50 are likely to open on a cautious note amid mixed signals in global markets and weak sentiments at home following the release of the fresh Hindenburg report in the Adani Group case against Securities and Exchange Board of India Chairman Madhavi Puri Book.
The movement of GIFT Nifty also indicates that India’s benchmark index has got off to a slightly negative start. GIFT Nifty is trading around the 24,362 level, down nearly 40 points from the previous close of Nifty futures.
The stock market is likely to react to the latest investigation report by US-based short-seller Hindenburg Research against Adani Group and Securities and Exchange Board of India Chairman Madhavi Puri Book, who have strongly denied all the allegations, calling them “malicious”, “baseless” and “lacking in truth”.
On Friday, domestic stock indexes closed up more than 1 percent each, led by gains in the index’s leading stocks.
The Sensex index rose 819.69 points or 1.04 percent to close at 79,705.91, while the Nifty 50 index rose 250.50 points or 1.04 percent to close at 24,367.50.
Nifty 50 formed a small candlestick on the daily chart with slight upper and lower wicks and opened with a gap up.
“Nifty is currently sitting on the edge of the key resistance around 24,350-24,380 levels, which is the lower limit of the previous sharp decline gap on August 5. Hence, any further upside from here could result in a complete filling of the gap around 24,690 levels,” said Nagaraj Shetty, senior technical research analyst at HDFC Securities.
He believes that the range-bound trade of a few sessions is now on the brink of an upside breakout. A decisive move above the 24,450 levels could propel the Nifty 50 to the next hurdle of 24,700 levels in the near term, he added.
Here’s what to expect from Nifty 50 and Bank Nifty today.
Nifty OI Data
An analysis of Nifty put options shows large open interest (OI) at the 24,000 level, suggesting potential support there. On the call side, notable OI concentration is seen at the 24,800 and 25,000 levels, said Mandar Bhojane, Technical Research Analyst at Choice Broking.
He advises traders and investors to look for buying opportunities when the Nifty is falling and use a proper stop-loss strategy when it dips below the identified support levels.
Nifty 50 Prediction
The Nifty 50 recorded a sustained rise of 250 points on August 9 and closed close to the day’s high.
“On the weekly chart, we see a bearish gap at the higher levels, suggesting weakness, but buying interest is also seen at the lower levels. On the daily chart, after the selling on Monday, the price traded within a constant range of 24,000-24,400 throughout the week. The upper limit of this range coincides with the 20 EMA (exponential moving average) and the bearish gap while the lower limit coincides with the 50 EMA,” said Rajesh Bhosale, Equity Technical Analyst at AngelOne.
Looking ahead to this week, he believes momentum could emerge if the price breaks out of this range. According to him, a breakout above 24,400-24,450 would create optimism and could close the recent gap at 24,700.
“However, given the ongoing global uncertainties, any bounce could be an opportunity to reduce long positions. On the downside, support is seen at 24,100-24,000 and a breakdown below this range could lead to further decline in the near term,” Bhosale said.
“Traders should closely monitor these levels and plan their trades accordingly. They are also advised to adopt a selective approach and focus on the action of certain stocks. Since the market movement was primarily driven by global signals, it is important to stay updated on those developments as well,” he added.
VLA Ambala, co-founder of Stock Market Today, noted that while the daily RSI is stable, the weekly RSI is at a high of 68 and the monthly RSI is at a high of 75.
“My analysis is that there may be scope for consolidation over the next four to seven days. Nifty is expected to face support levels at 24,320-24,260 and resistance around 24,440-24,530 in the next session,” Ambala said.
Bank Nifty Forecast
The Bank Nifty index rose 327.80 points or 0.65 percent to close at 50,484.50 on Friday.
“For Bank Nifty, 50,000 will now be the immediate reference point for the bulls. Above 50,000, it can bounce towards 50,800 and the 50-day SMA i.e. 51,200. Conversely, a drop below 50,000 will make the uptrend vulnerable. Below the same level, we expect 49,700-49,500,” Amol Athawale, vice-president, technical research, Kotak Securities said.
Disclaimer: The views and recommendations expressed above are those of the individual analysts or brokerage firms and not that of Mint. We recommend that you check with a certified professional before making any investment decisions.
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