President Joe Biden’s red line on Rafah puts Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu at a crossroads

President Biden’s red line against Israel’s large-scale military operation in Rafah leaves Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu at a crossroads: a major move to crush Hamas in its last stronghold in southern Gaza If this happens, it could create an unprecedented situation that could lead to a severance of relations with the United States. Any decisive action could undermine domestic political coalitions.

“Israel has to make a decision,” White House national security communications adviser John Kirby said Thursday.

“We understand that, so we have to base ours on their actions. Last night, the President said that if they defeat Rafah, invade and in a massive way… I think we made it very clear that if we were to invade, we would have to make some serious decisions. But we hope that doesn’t happen.”

In a CNN interview aired on Wednesday, Biden issued his clearest ultimatum to Israel in its war to annihilate Hamas, saying that if Israel launches a large-scale attack on Rafah, then attack Israel. He also stated that he would refrain from transferring weapons.

This comes amid intense pressure from Democrats criticizing Israel’s war efforts and protests on college campuses calling for an end to U.S. aid to Israel. This follows the decision of the government.

Biden: ‘Civilians are being killed in Gaza as a result of bombs and other attacks on populated areas’ said in an interview. “We are not running away from Israeli security. We are moving away from Israel’s ability to wage war in these areas.”

However, Biden’s opposition to Israel’s large-scale offensive in Rafah also comes as senior presidential officials have called for Hamas to release hostages in exchange for a temporary ceasefire. But Israel has said Hamas’s previous demands are unacceptable and has increased pressure for negotiations by seizing key border crossings this week.

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu indicated Thursday that Israel would wipe out the last remnants of Hamas in Rafah with or without aid, but did not specifically address Biden’s warning.

“If we have to be isolated, we will be isolated,” Netanyahu said in Hebrew posted on social media site X.

“I already said I’ll fight with my claws if I have to.”

This view was echoed by Benny Gantz, leader of the opposition National Unity Party, who is also a member of Israel’s war cabinet and unity government.

“While Israel has a moral and security obligation to continue to defend itself to ensure the return of the hostages and eliminate the threat Hamas poses to southern Israel, the United States has the necessary “There is a moral and strategic obligation to provide Israel with the means to do so,” he said in a statement Wednesday.

“Beyond security needs, there is an important international political message behind America’s continued support for Israel,” he added.

Israel’s far-right Minister of National Security Itamar Ben Gvir went a few steps further in a post on X on Wednesday, writing “Hamas❤️Biden,” a comment that more moderate Israeli leaders condemned.

Although Prime Minister Netanyahu has made tough statements in public — seen primarily as an appeal to his right-wing base — he has shown respect for Biden’s demands in private.

This includes the Israeli military’s swift disclosure of intelligence failures surrounding the World Central Kitchen’s deadly attack on humanitarian aid workers in April. Israel opens additional border crossings to deliver aid. And so far, serious operations in Rafah have been held back.

Given this recent history, Netanyahu is unlikely to ignore Biden’s red line on Rafah, said Aaron David Miller, a veteran U.S. diplomat for the Middle East and senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. .

“It’s hard to believe that in the face of the president’s remarks, Israel’s war cabinet would simply say, ‘Well, thank you very much. Full speed ahead to Rafah.’ It’s hard to imagine,” he said.

“I think [Netanyahu] I’m always juggling. One step back, one step forward, one step to the side, that’s what he’s done for decades. I think this is a classic example of that,” he added.

“But I think [the Israelis] The regime will find a way to test the limits of an acceptable range of operations in Rafah. So far, it seems to me that the regime is willing to tolerate the actions of the Israelis. ”

The Biden administration said Israel’s limited entry into Rafah this week to control border crossings into Egypt did not amount to a large-scale attack as it had warned.

Biden’s moves around Rafah mark the first concrete actions to rein in the Israeli military, even as Biden increasingly signals public dissatisfaction with the worsening humanitarian disaster in the Gaza Strip.

The approximately 25 square mile city on the border with Egypt is home to more than 1 million Palestinians. And people suffer from hunger and disease without access to reliable sources of clean water, food and medical care.

The president generally supports Israel’s goal of eliminating Hamas following an Oct. 7 attack in Israel that massacred 1,200 people and took more than 250 hostages. Ceasefire efforts are focused on securing the release of the remaining 133 hostages, but the exact number of surviving hostages is unknown.

The president is also trying to broker a mega-deal for Saudi Arabia to establish ties with Israel to reshape the Middle East region. Key aspects of the agreement call for ending Israel’s war in Gaza and paving the way for a Palestinian state.

The regime hopes that a six-week ceasefire will first allow for the release of hostages and, second, open space for negotiations towards a permanent end to the war.

Saudi Arabia said it cannot open relations with Israel without securing a path to a Palestinian state. Opposition to a Palestinian state is high among Israelis, but it would be more popular if it were part of a broader deal brokered by the United States.

investigation Commissioned by the Geneva Institute And a poll released in January found that 51.3 percent of Israeli respondents supported the overall deal, which includes the return of hostages held by Hamas. Normalization of relations between Saudi Arabia and Israel. and the establishment of a non-military Palestinian state in the West Bank and Gaza.

The Biden administration envisions a post-war Gaza Strip overseen by the West Bank’s governing body, the Palestinian Authority, and a coalition of Arab security forces to help maintain security there.

Israeli Ambassador to the United States Michael Herzog spoke Thursday about the so-called next-day scenario in Gaza and the possibility that an Arab military coalition could play a role in maintaining security in the Gaza Strip, but warned that Israel must first defeat Hamas. .

Israel estimates that Hamas maintains about four battalions in Rafah. Destroying these battalions (whose numbers can range up to 1,000 fighters per group) and securing the Gaza-Egypt border to prevent arms smuggling to Hamas is the main focus of the military operation. considered as a purpose.

“We cannot complete the mission of defeating Hamas without dealing with these battalions,” Herzog said in a public conversation with Miller on Thursday. This is because it has the potential to become the core of rebuilding Hamas’ capabilities.” Sponsored by the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.

“I would venture to say that if these battalions remain intact, there is no possibility that external forces such as Arab armies or other forces will enter Gaza by the time their mission is completed. As long as they have the capacity to do so, they are not going to enter Gaza.”