Current analysis of the U.S. housing market from leading real estate consultants is bleak.
Nick GerliHe is the CEO of Reventure Consulting. Reventure Appargues that “the South is experiencing a massive housing bubble that’s about to burst,” including hot homebuilding states like Texas, Florida, and Tennessee. His analysis shows that the last time Americans saw numbers this bad was right before the 2008 market crash, which left millions of homeowners unable to pay their mortgages.
“The number of new homes for sale in the southern region has soared to nearly 300,000, the highest level on record. It’s higher than the peak of the last bubble in August 2006, before the big crash,” Gerli said. Said“A lot of people want us to think, ‘This time is different,’ in the housing market. But it’s not.”
11) Pay attention to inventory and discount levels in your local housing market. These are the two most important data points for understanding trends.
You can access it from the link below. https://t.co/yTZTC7FPDB.
See how your area compares to others…
— Nick Gerli (@nickgerli1) July 8, 2024
Southern homebuilders are building homes faster than they can sell them as new home sales stagnate below pre-pandemic levels. “As a result, the ‘months supply’ of Southern homebuilder lots has surged to nearly nine months, one of the highest levels on record,” Gerli said.
There are fears that high home prices, combined with an excess of inventory on the market, will force investors to sell their portfolios, leading to a “great housing recession.” The biggest problem these homebuilders face is that high property prices and high interest rates still keep most buyers out of the market, making it increasingly difficult to sell these homes without a significant price cut. (ROOKE: In just 16 years, Gen X and Millennials have abandoned “hope and change” for MAGA.)
He doesn’t expect the bubble to happen in the Northeast or Midwest, where homebuilding didn’t peak like it did in the South, which became a popular area for Americans to move to when the pandemic raged and corona-authoritarianism was rampant in Democratic-majority states. The Biden economy has made homebuying impossible, and for those who can afford high interest rates and high prices, the financial strain is not known for how long it will last, especially if homeowners were counting on refinancing.
