Maine voters are expressing mixed feelings about the Senate candidates. A recent statewide poll reveals that many are worried about Republican incumbent Sen. Susan Collins’ connection to President Donald Trump, and these concerns seem to eclipse those regarding Democratic challenger Troy Jackson’s alignment with progressive movements.
Collins has been serving in the Senate since 1997, winning her most recent term in 2020 by nearly nine percentage points. The new poll indicates that 55% of voters are apprehensive that their voting decisions are too aligned with Trump, while just 43% express concern over Jackson’s proximity to democratic socialism.
Interestingly, 14% more independents appear to be worried about Collins’ ties to Trump than about Jackson’s connection to progressive politics. Jackson, who hails from Allagash and was formerly the president of the Maine Senate, advanced as the Democratic nominee to replace Graham Platner after Platner withdrew due to assault allegations.
Jackson’s candidacy has turned the race into somewhat of a referendum on Collins. Among Jackson’s supporters, 61% state they are voting predominantly against Collins, which represents a rise from 48% when Platner was in the running. Conversely, only 36% indicate they are voting for Jackson, a drop from 50% in support of Platner.
For Collins, the numbers are striking; 71% of her supporters claim they are primarily voting for her, a notable increase from 53% in June, whereas only 27% say they are voting against Jackson, down from 45% with Platner.
Despite significant shifts in the Democratic landscape, the Senate race in Maine remains tight. Jackson holds a narrow lead over Collins at 48% to 46%, which is within the margin of error. Back in June, Collins had a three-point lead over Platner. The poll reflects a four-point decline in support for Collins while Jackson has improved by one point compared to Platner.
Among voters who state they are completely certain about their choices, Jackson’s advantage grows to four points. While Collins’ supporters are more likely to consider their choice fixed by eight percentage points, about 20% of Jackson’s backers say they might still change their minds.
Partisan support appears solid, with around 90% of dedicated voters backing their respective candidates. Independents lean slightly in favor of Jackson. His strongest demographics include liberals, college-educated women, young voters (especially those under 35), men under 45, and union members. Meanwhile, Collins draws significant support from conservatives, white evangelical Christians, men over 45, and voters without college degrees, leading among rural and married voters.
In contrast to Platner’s numbers from June, Jackson shows stable support among key groups but has notably gained among younger voters. Meanwhile, the 10-point lead Collins had among men has vanished.
Support among MAGA Republicans is overwhelmingly for Collins, yet three-quarters of non-MAGA Republicans lean towards Jackson. Jackson has widespread backing from the Democratic Socialists of America but sees his support wane to two-thirds among non-member Democrats and independents.
According to Daron Shaw, a Republican pollster, the shift in candidates from Platner to Jackson has underscored a desire for change and increased opposition to Trump. The race is tight, but there’s a slight Democratic edge.
Collins represents the only Republican Senate incumbent running for re-election this year from a state Trump lost in 2024. His personal favorability rating has dropped significantly, now showing 39% favorable and 59% unfavorable. Democrats view Maine as a crucial seat in their bid to reclaim Senate control.
Inflation is paramount for voters, with one-third indicating it will influence their Senate vote most significantly, followed by issues like immigration, healthcare, and domestic political strife. Jackson’s lead benefits from considerable support among economically disadvantaged groups, amounting to a 29-point advantage.
Collins carries a 10-point unfavorable rating, a further dip from June, while Jackson’s favorability is slightly positive at 47% versus 46% unfavorable. Voters harboring negative views towards both candidates tend to favor Jackson, especially those with negative impressions of both parties.
Democrats show greater interest in the election than Republicans, with more indicating they are likely to vote. However, the intention to vote is almost equal across both groups.
In the gubernatorial contest, Democrat Hannah Pingree has a solid lead over Republican Bobby Charles, but a significant portion of voters remains open to changing their preferences.
