Joe Biden stunned the world last week when he said his administration was “discussing” a possible Israeli plan to attack Iran's oil industry in retaliation for Iran's ballistic missile attack. Notably, Biden did not reject these plans outright, as he had said the day before about a possible attack on the United States. Iranian nuclear facilities. Oil prices rose 10% the next day, even though the US president retracted his statement.
Historian AJP Taylor I wrote “War is much like a road accident, with grave consequences, but not necessarily equally grave causes.” Israel's targeted attacks on refinery facilities may do little more than garner domestic acclaim. Bombing Kharg Island, Iran's oil export hub, would cripple the country's economy. But such a move could also push up global oil prices and impact U.S. consumers in the weeks before a crucial election.
US government sanctions have failed to prevent Iranian oil exports. The main reasons are as follows. China He was going to rebel against Washington. Since the Chinese government buys about 90% of Iranian crude oil, an Israeli attack on Iranian facilities would have uncertain consequences. The real risk lies in escalation, which could draw China into the conflict and reshape long-standing power dynamics in the Middle East.
The outcome of such conflicts is difficult to predict. However, the aftermath of the US invasion of Iraq serves as a reminder that destabilizing actions often lead to intervention in the Middle East by outside powers. Last week, Russia carried out In Syria, airstrikes were carried out against extremist groups in areas under US control. The possibility of a conflict between Russian and American forces in Syria is a deep-seated concern. adversary They were on opposite sides in that civil war. Russia's invasion of Ukraine will only intensify mutual conflict.
Ultimately, the impact of the Israeli attack will depend on Iran's response and how the world's major oil producers react to a possible oil shock. China may be able to offset its own losses 1.5m barrel By turning to Saudi Arabia, which has sufficient excess production capacity, it could increase its daily supply of Iranian oil. But Riyadh has only recently restored ties with Tehran and is wary of becoming drawn into the Israeli-Iranian conflict. The desert kingdom had sought to improve relations with Tehran after a costly war with the Houthis sparked it. devastating Drone attack on Iranian oil facilities. The attack bypassed U.S. Patriot missile defenses and temporarily halved Riyadh's oil production.
An all-out war between Iran and Israel could lead to a shutdown of the war. Strait of Hormuzthe world's most important oil transport chokepoint, with a quarter of the crude oil transported by tanker passing through it. This will be a hammer blow to the world economy. But if Iran is cornered, with its export capacity reduced to a smoking ruin, it may do something to block the strait. despair. Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates have reportedly refused to open their airspace to Israeli and US aircraft involved in the bombing of Iran last April. Both must think it wise to do so again. War is unacceptable and unacceptable as a means of resolving international disputes. It is better to silence the guns and rely on diplomacy in the region's combat zones. If leaders came together to embrace this view, the Middle East, and the world, would undoubtedly be a safer and more stable place.
