Trucking Industry Faces Unique Retention Challenges

The trucking sector has been sounding the alarm for some time about a dwindling driver workforce in America. Yet, insights from federal research and data on industry turnover suggest that the real issue might be less about attracting truckers and more about keeping them on the road.

Historically, large long-haul truckload carriers have routinely cycled through nearly their entire driver staff each year. Researchers note that factors such as pay, long hours, extended time away from home, and less-than-ideal working conditions contribute significantly to this turnover. Furthermore, independent owner-operators add complexity to this dynamic, as many drivers choose to leave established carriers to work independently rather than exiting the trucking industry altogether. Hence, high turnover does not necessarily indicate a loss of drivers from the field.

According to Bob Costello, Chief Economist for the American Trucking Associations (ATA), “No, the trucking industry is not currently experiencing the widespread driver shortage like it did during the pandemic.” He notes that, “The market has changed considerably.”

A 2021 ATA report indicated the industry faced a shortage of around 80,000 drivers, projecting that this figure could rise to 123,000 by 2026 and reach 161,000 by 2030. With retirements, industry growth, and drivers leaving the profession, the ATA estimated that nearly 1 million new drivers would be needed between 2021 and 2030.

However, past federal labor studies have questioned the narrative of a constant driver shortage. A 2019 analysis from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) found that the truck driver labor market often resembled other blue-collar job sectors, with driver availability closely tied to changes in earnings. Researchers concluded that there was no substantial evidence of a long-ranging shortage, although they did identify severe turnover mainly among long-haul truckload carriers.

That same BLS study, utilizing ATA data, revealed that annual turnover rates at large long-haul carriers averaged around 94% from 1995 to 2017. Smaller truckload carriers had turnover rates of approximately 79.2%, while less-than-truckload carriers saw only about 11.7%.

These statistics don’t account for every way drivers engage with the industry. As of 2025, around 7% of heavy and tractor-trailer truck drivers were self-employed, while about 40% were employed within the truck transportation sector, based on the latest BLS figures.

Long-haul drivers sometimes become owner-operators, purchasing or leasing their trucks to run their businesses. So when a driver leaves a big carrier, they might still be actively driving without exiting the trucking world altogether.

Yet, independent drivers face their own set of challenges. Owner-operators often rely on fluctuating spot freight markets and brokers to secure loads while shouldering costs such as fuel and maintenance. A report from the Owner-Operator Independent Drivers Association (OOIDA) highlighted that certain lease-purchase agreements, in which drivers lease trucks from carriers while working as independent contractors, can also create financial strain.

According to OOIDA spokesman George O’Connor, “From our perspective, that’s clearly a retention problem.”

OOIDA points out that there are over 400,000 new commercial driver’s licenses issued each year, suggesting that high turnover, rather than an insufficient number of potential drivers, is the core issue affecting the industry.

The National Academies of Sciences, Engineering and Medicine also investigated the matter and concluded that conventional economic theories do not support claims of a continual shortage in long-haul trucking. Instead, the report highlighted irregular schedules, lengthy hours, limited time at home, and moderate pay as contributing factors to high turnover rates.

Costello contests the view that high turnover rates indicate an absence of a shortage, asserting that increased turnover can actually happen when companies are fiercely competing for a limited number of qualified drivers.

“During the pandemic, freight demand skyrocketed while driver schools were closed, retirements surged, and fleets fought hard for available talent,” he explained. “Driver pay increased dramatically, signing bonuses became commonplace, and drivers had many more opportunities to switch carriers.”

“High turnover often reflects competition among carriers for the same pool of qualified drivers,” he added.

While the ATA reports that a softer demand for freight has alleviated the acute shortage problem, Costello indicates that the industry’s current challenge is finding drivers who meet safety and professional standards.

“That is what the discussion has always been about: not simply the number of people holding CDLs, but the availability of safe, qualified drivers,” he remarked.

Gord Magill, a trucker and writer who has critiqued the shortage narrative, also differentiates between the total number of drivers and the supply of seasoned operators. He stated, “There is not and never has been a shortage of truck drivers in the United States,” suggesting that the industry has instead faced a chronic retention issue since deregulation.

Magill worries that this high turnover among novice drivers leads to a broader problem: not enough drivers last long enough in the industry to gain the critical experience necessary for specialized freight tasks.

“The persistent claim of a truck driver shortage that has circulated for years has, paradoxically, created a real shortage of skilled, competent, and highly experienced truck drivers,” he asserted. These experienced drivers are essential for handling specialized jobs, including transporting hazardous materials, oversized loads, livestock, and logs.

Time spent waiting — or driver detention — at warehouses or factories to load or unload might exacerbate retention challenges. A Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration review pointed to research showing that waiting times have led to over $1 billion in lost earnings for for-hire truckload drivers. It also linked longer waiting periods to increased crash rates.

Costello highlighted that “Compensation and detention time can certainly affect retention. Competitive pay is crucial, and excessive waiting detracts from a driver’s time, reduces productivity, and can lead to frustration.”

Costello noted that factors like freight conditions, routes, home time, workplace culture, and alternative job opportunities also play a significant role in whether drivers remain with a carrier.

Truck drivers function in a unique niche under federal wage codes. The Motor Carrier Exemption in the Fair Labor Standards Act generally exempts qualifying interstate truck drivers and some other motor-carrier employees from federal overtime-pay requirements.

O’Connor asserted that enhancing pay and working conditions could help retain experienced drivers, mentioning issues like the need for overtime protections and even access to restrooms at shipping facilities as vital quality-of-life improvements for drivers.

The impact of turnover stretches beyond the costs of recruiting new drivers for carriers. Experienced drivers accumulate more training and highway miles, while a constant influx of new, less experienced drivers can result in unsafe conditions, as these individuals operate vehicles that can weigh up to 80,000 pounds.

“The safest drivers are those who accumulate the most experience and who stick around the longest,” O’Connor emphasized.