Trump to Attend NATO Summit in Ankara for Erdoğan

President Donald Trump will represent Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan at the NATO summit in Ankara, Turkey. “I’m going for President Erdoğan,” Trump said during a June 24 press conference, referring to Erdoğan as a “friend” and a “respected leader.” He hinted at the possibility of increased defense collaboration between the U.S. and Turkey.

The summit kicks off on Tuesday in Ankara.

These comments mark a notable change in the United States’ approach to Turkey. A few years back, tensions were high after Turkey acquired Russia’s S-400 air defense system in 2019, leading to Turkey’s expulsion from the F-35 fighter jet program and subsequent sanctions on its Defense Procurement Agency—these events solidified Turkey’s position as one of NATO’s more challenging members.

Even with unresolved issues, analysts suggest that Turkey is finding it hard to distance itself from NATO. The alliance faces off against Russia while dealing with instability in the Black Sea and conflict in the Middle East.

“Turkey is extremely important to the Trump administration,” stated James Jeffrey, a former U.S. Ambassador to Turkey. He emphasized Trump’s strong rapport with Erdoğan, describing him as a “great partner in the region,” and noted that Trump would hold bilateral discussions with Erdoğan at the summit.

Jeffrey suggests that Trump’s fondness for Erdoğan is genuine but rooted in more than just personal connection; it reflects a strategic understanding of Turkey’s critical role in the region.

“It’s a tough guy’s idea with determination,” he elaborated, indicating that the relationship extends beyond mere affinity.

As NATO transitions back to its primary focus of collective defense, there’s increasing pressure on member countries to showcase significant military capabilities. Kan Kasapol, a senior fellow at the Hudson Institute, mentioned this shift as a necessity amidst the Cold War dynamics resurfacing.

“NATO has set a defense spending target of 5% of GDP by 2025,” he noted, adding that President Trump had previously criticized European allies for low defense budgets, claiming they took advantage of the U.S.

Turkey boasts the second-largest military in NATO after the U.S., controlling crucial waterways and sharing borders with Syria, Iraq, and Iran, not to mention having a substantial defense industry.

“You can’t have real security for NATO without Turkey’s full integration,” asserted Rich Outzen, a former State Department advisor. This sentiment has been intensified due to Russia’s actions in Ukraine, the ongoing instability in the Middle East, and the upheaval in Syria.

Jeffrey highlighted that Turkey’s actions, particularly regarding the Black Sea and its role in supplying Kyiv with drones, are vital. “We cannot contain Russia in the Black Sea without Turkey,” he said.

However, skepticism exists about whether Turkey’s rising importance outweighs its contentious foreign policy. Critics note that under Erdoğan, Turkey’s alignment with NATO has diverged, especially with its support for Hamas and possession of Russian S-400 systems, complicating its ties with the U.S.

“Turkey is unique in openly supporting Hamas while seeking advanced U.S. defense technology,” remarked Sinan Sidi, a senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies. He also pointed out that Turkey stands out among NATO allies for its application to non-Western alliances like BRICS.

Despite Trump’s personal favor towards Erdoğan, critics argue this complicates diplomatic efforts. Sidi noted that the U.S. Congress often stands as the primary obstacle to Erdoğan’s wishes, especially concerning arms sales.

Congress has shown resistance to a proposed $700 million arms sale to Turkey, with Rep. Gregory Meeks questioning the rationale behind the sale and Turkey’s ongoing use of the S-400 system.

While the Turkish embassy did not provide comments, Jeffrey mentioned that the proposed sale of F110 fighter jet engines presents fewer challenges than reintroducing Turkey into the F-35 program, which faces complex technological issues intertwined with the S-400. “The F-35 is a different situation,” he explained, highlighting concerns about sensitive technology being compromised.