President Trump has been locked up in a tough tariff war with Canada, Mexico, the European Union and China to rebuild the US economy for the long term, with early winners and losers already emerging.
Among the expected early winners are domestic American steel and aluminum manufacturers, such as the US steel and Cleveland cliffs. These are expected to benefit after Trump collects 25% of blankets on key materials.
Century Aluminum, the largest major aluminum producer in the United States, said Trump's tariffs “will help to promote a revival of domestic aluminum production.”
The cost of hot roll coils, a measure of steel prices, surged to $945 per short tonne on Wednesday. It's the best since February 2024. Aluminum costs surged at a record 45 cents on Tuesday to more than $990 per tonne.
Domestic production also brings benefits as imported products are set to be criticized for rising prices. Anheuser-Busch's C-Suite views tariffs as “bullying” against its outlook, a previously reported post. The company's stock has soared 24% this year.
Bad Light and Michelob Maker are far better than some of its major rivals. The company says 99% of the beer it sells in the US is brewed in the state, and 99% of its ingredients are sourced from American farmers.
“Another big winner is [going to] “We are pleased to announce that we are a great source of service,” said Scott Lincicom, Vice President of General Economics at Kato Institute.
Trump's tariff winners and losers
| US steel/aluminum producers (US steel, Cleveland cliffs) A 25% tariff on foreign imports will increase demand for domestic suppliers. |
US automakers (GM, Ford, Tesla) One estimate states that if the rates are held, the average cost of building a car would increase by $400. |
| Anheuser Bush Bud Light Maker supplies and brews beer in the US. Price pressure should be avoided to attack foreign rivals. |
Wall Street/US Stocks The technology-rich Nasdaq has been particularly highlighted, with a decline of over 2,300 points over the past 30 days. The S&P went into the correction after losing more than 10% of its recent high. |
| US Software Company (Palantir) Unlike hardware manufacturers like Apple, software suppliers like AI and Palantir avoid the worst tariffs. |
apple The supply chain of iPhone manufacturers is closely linked to China and is subject to 20% tariffs. |
| Warehouse Owner US companies stockpile resources. All these materials require storage space. |
Wine/Liquor Industry Europe and Canada each have been raising tariffs on American whiskey, but US tariffs on imported wine and champagne can raise hundreds of dollars at retailers. |
| Gold/Silver Price Precious metals, considered hedges against economic uncertainty, are inflated in value during the trade war. |
California Almond Producer More than a third of the state's almonds are exported to Europe. This focuses on mutual tariffs. |
The US software sector has also been “not exposed” to tariffs, noting that it is beneficiary of IBM, Oracle, Microsoft, Salesforce and AI defense company Palantir.
“The Palantir stands out because they are so heavily focused,” Ives said. “As we spend more and more in the US on technology, we can actually make money, especially when it comes to AI technology.”
Meanwhile, gold prices have skyrocketed nearly 13% since the start of the year, exceeding more than $3,000 per ounce for the first time on Friday. Precious metals are traditionally considered valuable storage in times of economic uncertainty. Elsewhere, silver prices have expanded nearly 14% per ounce at $34 since January 1st.
So far, Trump has imposed a 25% tariff on most imports from Mexico and Canada, with a 10% share of energy and fertilizer. Separately, he slapped 20% collection of goods imported from China.
“I think these are the first negotiation strategies,” said Brandon Daniels, CEO of supply chain software company Exiger. “You see the US creating broad and important tariffs, and then you're asking all countries to come to the table.”
Trump has also vowed to impose a whopping 200% tariff on imports of wine, champagne and other alcohols made in the European Union. The president said the move will take place in response to the EU's imposition of a 50% tariff on US-made whiskey.
The proposed 200% tariff has already caused a run with champagne, Bordeaux and Burgundy wines, Post learned.
“Panic purchases are totally effective this week,” Daniel Posner, owner of Wine Company Store in White Plains, New York, told the Post.
“People take this threat seriously.”
Posner sold out of wines that he advertised in his daily mail blast within an hour on Thursday and Friday.
According to email blast, the 2016 Chateau Rauzan Segla Margaux bottle, which costs $109 today, has surged to $375 at 200% tariffs, while the 2022 Chateau Smith Haut Lafitte Pessac Leognan bottle will cost $447.
Posner was hoping to sell 30-40 of the 2022 vintage, but 60 orders have been poured in and his team is in a hurry to secure more bottles.
California almond producers (more than a third of them are shipped to Europe) could also become a huge hit.
Canada is already leviing retaliatory tariffs on US-made goods worth $21 billion, ranging from agricultural products to American-made whiskey and other liquors. According to some reports, Canadian retailers are pulling Tennessee whiskey completely off the shelf to protest Trump's actions.
The escalating trade war could potentially spell trouble for US automakers, including Elon Musk's Tesla. Pioneering electric car companies have been falling at a whopping 36% since the beginning of this year. This relates to critics' focus on working with Musk's government efficiency.
US-based automakers such as General Motors, Ford and Stelanis are in the “eye of the storm” as tariffs hit almost every aspect of their supply chain, from sourcing and production to sales of materials.
According to a Barclays investigation, if tariffs remain in place, the average cost of manufacturing a vehicle could inflate $400 per vehicle.
“They're attacked from all sides, from Canada, Mexico and China,” Ives added.
In a letter to the US trade representative's office on Tuesday, Tesla warned that retaliatory tariffs could be “exposed” to “disproportionate effects.” The company called on the United States to carefully consider its trade policy to ensure that it “doesn't inadvertently harm American companies.”
US construction companies and other construction companies that rely on other materials and by-products such as nails and sheet metal can also be in trouble.
Tech Giant Apple, which manufactures most of its hardware in China, is expected to be hit hard by tariff-related hikes unless CEO Tim Cook can secure a waiver from Trump. iPhone manufacturer stock has fallen 13% since January 1st.
“We've seen it in the past, but say that if Apple incurs tariffs that will be a game-changer for many parts of the tech ecosystem, Apple estimates that it would take $20 billion to move 3-5 years and $20 billion to the US.
The multifaceted conflict has surprised Wall Street, with massive tech sector stocks being hit hardest. The Tech Heavy Nasdaq Index has surpassed 2,300 points (nearly 12%) in the last 30 days as tariff disputes escalate.
The Broad-based S&P 500 fell by about 250 points or 4% over the same period, while the Dow Jones industrial average fell by about 1,000 points or 2.4%.
The president and his allies have dispelled concerns about the recent rush in the US stock market, claiming that short-term pain is needed to level the international competition and ensure a vibrant American economy with fair trade deals, readjusted trade deals and revitalizing domestic manufacturing.
“We're focusing on the real economy. Can we create an environment where the market has long-term benefits and the Americans have long-term benefits?” Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said when he appeared on CNBC. “I've not been worried about a bit of volatility over the course of three weeks.”
