A recent call with President Trump and a call with President Vladimir Putin now appears to be a pattern – a pattern of refusing to accept a White House ceasefire, with more preconditions added.
Donald Trump’s response may be more significant in the long run. Records of White House negotiations with the Kremlin have softened, and concessions often lead to more wars. This time, the outcome may be a huge European fire.
Trump and his best national security officials have preemptively recognized some of Moscow’s key states, with no NATO membership for Ukraine, no recovery of Ukrainian territory seized by Russia since 2014, and no peacekeeping forces either.
When the typical Kremlin propaganda explosion occurs, Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov rejects European peacekeeping forces as “uncondemned involvement of NATO countries in the war with the Russian Federation” and doesn’t worry about it, nor does the US, which had already effectively refused to deploy in order to ensure “backstop” security guarantees for European peacekeepers.
It appears that the Kremlin’s strategy has been accepted by Washington. Trump’s Ukrainian president has shown no desire to stand up to the Ukrainian government led by Jewish Zelensky, who says “dictator” about the Ukrainian constitution, which bars presidential elections during martial law, making presidential voting impossible. He is also accused of personally profiting from what Trump calls “Gravy Train” assistance.
Kremlin leaders with a prize in their pocket have requested Ukraine to be vulnerable and effectively blinded: no weapons from the West, no “recontracts” of the Ukrainian army, no end of the military draft, and no intelligence news sharing on the battlefield.
Putin is expanding his menu at the Riyadh summit. He argues Russia’s recognition of the annexation of the Luhansk, Donetsk, Herson, and Zapolizia regions is already on the cards. He discusses the Istanbul framework as the basis for a “peace agreement.”
The draft, rejected by Kiev even in the desperate first few months of Russian invasion, effectively transforms Ukraine into an unprotected guardian of Russia, subject to Russia’s veto in implementing its foreign and security policies, and largely disarmed and banned seeking Western aid with either weapons or military.
The following are one of the key “root causes” of the “conflict” that Putin suggested at a press conference last week as a precondition for a ceasefire in response to Trump’s proposal: “I think we’ll use that framework as a peace and we’ll achieve a peace agreement.”
Russian dictators could push further to revive NATO’s demands for 2021 to retract soldiers and weapons from member states in Eastern and Central Europe. Trump cannot force other alliance members to follow, but considering his record, he may be able to unilaterally accept Putin’s wishes by retracting US security guarantees.
Russian dictators may be able to revive the NATO demands for 2021 to retract soldiers and weapons from member states in Eastern and Central Europe. Trump cannot force other alliance members to follow, but considering his record, he may be able to unilaterally accept Putin’s wishes by retracting US security guarantees.
Conveniently, he can influence the change without formally violating Article 5 of the NATO Convention, which states that attacks against one member state are considered attacks against all of them, but each member is not necessarily required to act militarily.
At least some member states, facing US protection, can declare “neutral,” or quit NATO, or return to Moscow to try to relieve Moscow.
Putin may stop here, but we must consider the possibility of rushing to exploit President Trump’s gifts that continue to be awarded.
The most vulnerable targets are Estonia and Latvia, lightly protected and only NATO member states on the Russian border. Along with Lithuania, they are the only former Soviet republics to join NATO and are considered “traitors” in Russian public opinion, which considers them “worse than enemies.” Putin’s traitors are worse than his enemies.
Of course, Putin didn’t want a prolonged traditional war with NATO. Even in the US, if the alliance does not succumb, Putin is ready to follow the doctrine of “escalating to de-escalate” by relying on the horrifying nuclear mail: an all-out war or “overall peace reconciliation” that spells out the “permanent neutrality” of Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania.
Trump still has the option to reverse the course by helping Ukraine force an increasingly tense Russia to negotiate an actual, fair, and lasting ceasefire. However, if the US president continues to promote surrender in Ukraine, disguised as “peace,” Washington may see Churchill’s prophecy come true in the wake of Chamberlain’s 1938 contract with Munich and Hitler.
