I’m skeptical about the actual figures regarding deportations and self-deportations, which the Department of Homeland Security claims are around 3 million. It just doesn’t add up; the math appears unrealistic.
Think about it. If a population similar to that of New Mexico left the United States, we should see some significant statistical evidence—something tangible, right?
The Surveillance Project has responded by filing a lawsuit to compel DHS to release essential data. It might seem surprising that an organization aligned with Trump, and known for uncovering the autopen scandal, is suing his own administration’s Department of Homeland Security.
Why, you ask? Well, let’s consider President Trump’s key promises.
President Trump’s core promises
Immigration enforcement has been a focal point of Trump’s political journey. It all kicked off back in 2015, with that memorable phrase about “building a wall.” After pledging mass deportations, he was elected with 77 million votes.
His Agenda 47 highlighted just 20 main commitments, with border security topping the list. The administration deserves recognition for making strides here, even as House Republicans refused to support these measures without providing amnesty to undocumented farm workers.
The second major promise was to execute the largest deportation initiative in American history. Trump has suggested this would surpass what Dwight Eisenhower attempted in 1954. Some estimates claim a 31% reduction in the illegal population in just a year.
With two and a half years left in his term, Trump should focus on his legacy. If he’s serious about “promises made and promises kept,” the deportation mechanisms need to function at full throttle right away. Only then could the total number of removals potentially hit millions, setting a new record beyond Eisenhower’s time.
He has the necessary resources for this. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) is better funded and equipped than ever.
The government ought to target high-density workplaces where illegal labor is prevalent—factories, farms, hotels, restaurants, and so forth—while imposing hefty penalties on employers hiring undocumented workers. That’s how numbers could start climbing rapidly.
Surpassing Eisenhower’s record would mark a significant conclusion to Trump’s political narrative. It would honor a core campaign promise and address the situation post-Biden administration, when nearly 10 million undocumented immigrants have been introduced into American society.
And remember, those undocumented individuals are still around. Trump still has the chance to remove them.
Related: Birthrights ruling gives Trump a clear path forward.
Amnesty lobby needs inflated numbers
The second reason behind the push for transparency is straightforward. The pardon lobby seems indifferent to Trump’s commitments.
Many Republicans rolled their eyes at Trump’s mass deportation promises, quickly shifting focus to a limited group of criminals—the “worst of the worst.”
The motivation is apparent. The amnesty lobby, especially its Republican members, fixates on cheap illegal labor. They staunchly oppose workplace enforcement, despite it being the only tangible means to achieve the scale of deportations Trump promised.
They’re already gearing up for what they call “comprehensive immigration reform,” essentially a euphemism for mass amnesty. Bills like the Dignidad method, with around 20 Republican sponsors, and the Agricultural Workforce Security Act of 2026, targeting illegal agricultural workers, have seen support from over 40 members.
Congress is also contemplating the reauthorization of the Trafficking Victims Protection Act, which has encouraged immigration from outside adjacent countries while inadvertently directing immigrants toward labor and sex trafficking networks. This has fueled funding for left-leaning NGOs currently suing the Trump administration, undermining efforts aimed at rooting out fraud.
The House and Senate include many pro-amnesty Republicans bankrolled by industries benefiting from cheap labor, and they’re unlikely to go anywhere soon.
Their favorite argument? Enough deportations have happened already; it’s time for a deal.
We won’t let them twist inflated numbers into such claims.
The amnesty movement used similar tactics during Obama’s presidency, combining border repatriation with formal deportations to label him a “deporter in chief,” attempting to create political space for amnesty. This strategy led to the failed Gang of Eight amnesty bill and contributed to the rise of Trump.
It’s clear this tactic is resurfacing.
The numbers don’t match
The third reason for this litigation is quite simple: the public has a right to know the actual figures.
DHS recently issued a statement to various media outlets.
In the year since President Trump retook office, over 3 million undocumented immigrants have left the United States, including an estimated 2.2 million who departed due to his administration’s intensified measures against illegal immigration. By June 24, more than 948,000 undocumented individuals had been deported, with over 981,000 arrested.
This first sentence is particularly striking.
It refers specifically to the timeframe from January 20, 2025, the first full year after Trump’s return to office, up to January 20 of this year, as reiterated on the DHS website.
If 3 million individuals were deported and 2.2 million self-deported, that suggests around 800,000 would either be officially deported or voluntarily left.
Yet, DHS has provided no evidence to substantiate that 2.2 million voluntarily left.
The administration points to the CBP Home app, citing only about 72,000 people reportedly utilizing it as of March. Even this figure might be inflated.
This still leaves a staggering 2 million people unaccounted for.
Related: A genuine nation knows who is present and who is not.
If a population equal to New Mexico’s left the United States, there should be observable statistical evidence. School enrollments, rental opportunities, remittance trends, job records, border crossings, flight bookings, and foreign governmental data should all reflect this phenomenon.
DHS must be able to furnish that evidence.
Now, consider the 800,000 deportations claimed in Trump’s first year.
DHS’s justification for the Congressional Budget for 2027 states that, during fiscal year 2025, DHS and ICE deported or returned 442,637 undocumented individuals, including during the Biden administration’s early months.
This total includes removals that are almost formal deportations alongside those occurring at the border.
Together, these figures amount to just over half of what the press release suggests.
The second sentence presents an even larger inconsistency. If 800,000 individuals were deported in Trump’s first year, the cumulative total certainly can’t be 948,000 after just seven months into 2026.
This indicates that only 148,000 people were deported during that seven-month span.
The numbers don’t align.
Anyone who travels in this country, browses social media, or watches television knows how widespread skepticism around these claims is at present. This has caused political difficulties, particularly among younger Republicans who prioritize immigration enforcement and national sovereignty.
However, this issue is fixable.
Governments can ramp up genuine enforcement on the ground, promptly driving numbers up. We can transparently publish these figures monthly, similar to how we handle employment statistics.
Mass deportation is essential to maintaining the unity of Trump’s coalition.
Regular, reliable reporting would generate excitement and demonstrate that the administration remains committed to its promises.
The Surveillance Project isn’t looking for Trump to stumble; we want him to succeed.
It all starts with understanding the actual numbers.
