Several newly released polls point to a tightly contested Senate race in Wisconsin, where Democrat Sen. Tammy Baldwin is vying for a seat in a state that former President Donald Trump is likely to win in the presidential election.
A Marist College poll conducted Thursday found that 51% of Wisconsin voters supported Baldwin, while 48% supported Republican Senate candidate Eric Hovde. Quinnipiac University Poll Similarly, the AARP poll shows the Democrat leading Hovde by just a few points (51% to 47%), with Baldwin at 50%, Republicans at 47% and 3% undecided.
So AARP Survey Among voters over 50, Hovde led Baldwin, 50% to 49%.
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Tammy Baldwin and Eric Hovde will face off in the November election. (Getty Images)
With just seven weeks to go until the general election, Hovde's profile continues to grow as voters increasingly take notice of their chosen candidate, and the latest polls show the race for Baldwin's Senate seat is a close one, despite the incumbency.
In the last poll in May QuinnipiacIn 2014, there was a double-digit margin between them, with Hovde receiving 42% and Baldwin receiving 54%. By early August, Hovde had risen to 44% and Baldwin to 51% of the incumbent Democrats. New York Times/Siena College Poll. The latest data shows that trend continues, with Hovde appearing to be gaining support among Wisconsin voters.
The Senate race is considered a “Democrat advantage” by top political handicappers. Cook Political ReportEven though the gap is narrowing.
The close poll by three different organizations comes as Baldwin faces intense scrutiny over his long-running relationship with Morgan Stanley personal-wealth adviser Maria Brisbane. Because the two are not married, Senate rules mean Baldwin is not required to disclose information about Brisbane's clients or assets.
Hovde and Republican advocacy groups have called for an investigation into her partner's position, which they say creates a potential conflict of interest, and Baldwin has responded by taking out an ad of his own, slamming the accusations as “total lies.”
Notably, Wisconsin is a swing state in Fox News' projected presidential power rankings, giving neither President Trump nor Vice President Kamala Harris a particular advantage in the contest, which is also key in the Senate race, where split-ballot voting is becoming increasingly rare.
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Hovde has the support of President Trump. (John Hart/Wisconsin State Journal via The Associated Press, File)
“Wisconsin is often a key state in electoral counts,” said Lee M. Miringoff, president of the Marist Institute for Public Opinion Research, whose latest poll showed Harris with 50% to Trump's 49%. “2024 will be no exception, and it looks like it's going to be a close race.”
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Baldwin has lost support in recent polls. (Drew Ungerer)
In the 2016 election, all of the senate races went in the same direction as their state's presidential vote. In 2020, the only senate race to have a different outcome from the state's presidential vote was Sen. Susan Collins (R-Maine). Collins has established herself as a true moderate in the Senate, and many credit her win to that.
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Both Trump and Harris are vying to win in the closely contested state of Wisconsin. (Brandon Bell/Getty Images)
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Baldwin said he voted for President Biden more than 99% of the time at the beginning of the 118th Congress. Five Thirty EightThe divide between Collins and her Republican colleagues was far more pronounced than the divide between Baldwin and his Democratic colleagues, which was virtually nonexistent.
Hovde has also boasted of being an endorsement of Republican Senate candidate Trump, which could boost his campaign if he beats Harris in Wisconsin.
The latest Quinnipiac Poll was conducted September 12-16 via random telephone interviews of 1,075 Wisconsin voters. It has a margin of error of +/- 3.0 percentage points. The AARP Poll was conducted September 11-14, when interviewers interviewed 1,052 voters. The poll of Wisconsin voters has a margin of error of +/- 4.0 percentage points, and for the sample of voters age 50 and older, it has a margin of error of +/- 3.5 percentage points. The Marist Poll was conducted September 12-17 via phone, text and online among 1,431 Wisconsin voters. It has a margin of error of +/- 3.6 percentage points.
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