When could Trump become the GOP nominee? Here’s what the numbers tell us

Donald Trump continues to dominate the Republican primary.

In polls released over the past four weeks by NBC News, CNN and Quinnipiac University, the former president received support from an average of 75% of Republican voters nationwide.

Her opponent, Nikki Haley, received support from an average of 20% of Republican voters in the same poll.

Still, the campaign isn’t over until a candidate wins at least 1,215 delegates.

Haley reminded voters this week that she’s “not going anywhere,” pledging to stay in office at least through Super Tuesday. It may be longer.

The former South Carolina governor faces a very steep hill to make this race competitive. She far exceeded her expectations in her home state this weekend and will need to build on her momentum with several more state wins between now and late March.

That’s because the earliest Mr. Trump could win a majority of delegates and become the presumptive nominee is likely to be late March.

State of play

Trump currently has 63 delegates and Haley has 17.

This comes after the former president won four previous primaries, or caucuses, in Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada and the Virgin Islands.

Republican presidential candidate Nikki Haley speaks at a campaign event in Beaufort, South Carolina, February 21, 2024. (AP Photo/Meg Kinard)

Haley hasn’t won a race, but the former governor fought in New Hampshire and won about the same number of delegates in Iowa.

Both of these states allocate delegates proportionally, meaning that the number of delegates a candidate receives matches their relative vote share.

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The road to Super Tuesday

Before Super Tuesday, there will be several contests with a total of 185 participants.

• South Carolina, February 24th: There are 50 delegates at stake this Saturday night. The statewide winner will receive all 29 available delegates. The winner of each congressional district receives three additional delegates for each district won (up to a maximum of 21 delegates). Haley is campaigning heavily in her home state, making this the next major contest to watch. Special coverage begins at 7pm ET on FOX News Channel.
• Michigan, February 27 and March 2: Sixteen delegates have filed for Michigan’s primary, the first of a two-part nominating contest. These are given to the candidate proportionally (if he receives more than 12.5% ​​of the votes). An additional 39 delegates will be awarded at the district convention on March 2nd.
• IDAHO, MARCH 2nd: Thirty-two delegates are at stake, and the candidate who receives a majority of the statewide vote will win all of them.
• Missouri, March 2nd: Missouri’s precinct caucuses will be held on March 2nd, but delegates will not be recognized until later.
• Washington DC, March 1-3: Nineteen delegates are on standby in the country’s capital. The candidate who wins a majority wins everyone.
• North Dakota, March 4: An additional 29 delegates will be awarded the day before Super Tuesday. If a candidate receives her 60% of the votes, she has won all the delegates. Otherwise, delegates will be awarded proportionately to candidates who receive at least 20% of the votes.

super tuesday

Super Tuesday gets its name from the large number of states that meet in one night, which means a large number of delegates. The total is 874.

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Here is a summary of these states and their key rules (this is often not a complete list of all rules for each state). The total number of delegates that may be assigned to each category representative is listed in parentheses.

• Alabama: 50 participants. Statewide (29): Proportional to the candidate taking an overall majority, otherwise more than his 20% of the votes. Congressional District (21): Majority-take-all or winner-take-all.
• Alaska: The number of delegates was 29, proportional (13%+).
• American Samoa: Nine representatives appointed by representative resolution.
• Arkansas: There are 40 representatives. Statewide (28): Majority or proportional (15%+). Congressional District (12): Majority-take-all or winner-take-all.
• California: The number of delegates is 169, majority or proportional.
• Colorado: The number of delegates is 37, proportional (20%+).
• Maine: Number of delegates: 20, majority aggregate or proportional (20% or more).
• Massachusetts: The number of delegates is 40, majority system or proportional system.
• Minnesota: There are 39 representatives. Statewide (15): 80% take-all or proportional (20%+). Congressional Districts (24): Proportional (20%+). Candidates who receive 80% or more of the vote statewide also receive all delegates in their congressional district.
• North Carolina: There were 74 representatives. Statewide (32): Proportional (20%+). Congressional District (42): 2/3 take-all or winner-take-all.
• Oklahoma: There were 43 representatives. Statewide (28): majority-take-all or proportional (15%+). Congressional Districts (15): Majority General Election or Proportional (15%+).
• Tennessee: There are 58 representatives. Statewide (31): 2/3 take-all or proportional (20%+). Congressional District (27): 2/3 take-all or winner-take-all.
• Texas: There were 161 representatives. Statewide (48): Proportional (20%+). Congressional Districts (114): Majority General Election or Proportional (20%+).
• Utah: There are 40 representatives. Majority-all or proportional (15%+).
• Vermont: There were 17 representatives. Majority-all or proportional (20% or more).
• Virginia: There were 48 representatives. Statewide (12): majority-take-all or proportional (15%+). Congressional Districts (33): Majority-at-large or proportional (15%+).

Most Super Tuesday states use majority voting rules. In a race where there are two major candidates remaining, this means that the winning candidate has a very good chance of winning all of its delegates.

former president trump (Brandon Bell/Getty Images)

If Trump wins all of his nominees between today and Super Tuesday, which is highly unlikely if Haley stays in the race, Trump would receive a total of 1,122 delegates. . That still leaves him about 100 delegates short of the 1,215 delegates needed for victory.

Late March

As March rolls around, we’ll be hosting two more “Mini Super Tuesday” events along with other contests. In summary:

• wyoming, Until March 10th: 12 delegates through county convention.

It will then move on to Super Tuesday II on March 12th, with a total of 161 participants.

• Georgia: There are 59 representatives. Statewide (17): Proportional (20%+). Congressional District (42): Majority-take-all or winner-take-all.
• Hawaii: There were 19 representatives. Statewide (13): Proportional. Congressional District (6): Proportional.
• Mississippi: There are 40 representatives. Statewide (28): majority-take-all or proportional (20%). Congressional District (12): Winner first. The candidate who wins a majority statewide also wins all the delegates in the congressional district.
• Washington: There were 43 representatives. Statewide (13): Majority-take-all or proportional (20%+). Congressional Districts (30): Majority general election or proportional (20% or more).

These states have mixed delegate systems that make it difficult for one candidate to beat all candidates in competitive races.

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Former President Trump’s daughter-in-law and RNC co-chair candidate Lara Trump cheers a crowd in North Charleston, South Carolina on February 21, 2024. (Brandon Gillespie/Fox News)

If Trump wins the March 12 election by a landslide, he will be the candidate on track to receive a total of 1,295 delegates by the end of March 12.

March 12th will be the earliest date for Trump to win.

However, Haley’s chances of winning on March 12 are extremely slim given her upcoming investments in multiple states.

It is likely to take at least until March 19, when primaries will be held in several more states with large numbers of delegates.

The total number of delegates awarded will increase again from March 15th.

• Northern Mariana Islands, March 15: 9 participants, winner take all.
• Guam, March 16: 9 unbound delegates (so we exclude these for now).

Super Tuesday III will then be held on March 19th, with a total of 350 participants in one night.

• Arizona: 43 delegates, winner-take-all.
• florida: 125 participants, winner take all.
• Illinois: There are 64 representatives. Statewide (13): Winner-takes-all. Congressional District (51): Delegate Election.
• Kansas: 39 participants, winner take all.
• Ohio: 79 participants, winner take all.

If Trump remains the leader in this race, he could win all 350 delegates by tonight. That would give him 1,654 delegates by this point in the campaign.

Trump could win on March 19th

There’s only one contest left in late March.

• Louisiana, March 23: 47 delegates, winner-take-all.

If Haley were much more competitive at this point, Trump would have to wait until at least April 2 to reach 1,215 delegates.

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And, of course, in that scenario, Ms. Haley would have been able to collect a significant number of delegates herself and become the presumptive nominee later in the primary season.

If the race continues into April, it will become more competitive.

There are still many delegates to take seats in April. In summary:

• April 2: Connecticut, Delaware, New York, Rhode Island, and Wisconsin. The total number of representatives was 195.
• April 6: Missouri (district conference). There are 40 representatives.
• ending April 20th: Wyoming (state tournament). There were 17 representatives.
• April 21st: Puerto Rico. There are 23 representatives.
• April 23rd: Pennsylvania. There are 67 delegates, but only 16 of his are bound delegates.

These are all dates where either Trump or Haley could win. The remaining states are divided into his May and his June.

• May 4th: Missouri (state tournament). He has 11 bound delegates and he has 3 unbound delegates.
• May 7th: Indiana. There are 58 representatives.
• May 14th: Maryland, Nebraska, and West Virginia. There are 105 representatives.
• May 21st: Kentucky and Oregon. There were 77 representatives.
• June 4th: Montana, New Jersey, New Mexico, and South Dakota. 63 bound delegates, 31 unbound delegates.

No matter what, we’ll know the winner by June 5th.

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