2027 has become a fixture in Washington. This is the year that U.S. intelligence agencies predict that China will be ready and capable of invading Taiwan.
It could happen sooner, as military exercises in the South China Sea prove. Or that can't happen at all.
But after President-elect Donald Trump's victory on Tuesday, Taiwanese are wondering whether the United States will protect them under a new non-interventionist administration.
President Trump's public comments may suggest that he is unwilling to put his feet on the ground in order to defend the democracy of a small island nation against another global superpower.
“I think Taiwan should pay for its defense,” Trump told Bloomberg Businessweek in June.
“As you know, we are no different from insurance companies. Taiwan will not give us anything,” he added.
In October, he again complained about U.S. support for Taiwan, accusing the country of “stealing” the U.S. microchip industry. President Trump appeared on the Joe Rogan podcast and said, “Taiwan, they stole our chip business.”
Following President-elect Donald Trump's victory on Tuesday, Taiwanese are wondering whether the United States will protect them under a new, more hands-off administration. (Angela Weiss/AFP via Getty Images)
“They want us to protect them, and they want us to protect them. They don't pay us to protect them. The mob will make you pay. But because of these countries that we protect, I was able to get hundreds of billions of dollars from NATO countries that never paid us. ”
Trump's inner circle is much more hawkish on Taiwan than the president-elect's comments suggest, said Lyle Goldstein, director of Asia engagement at Defense Priorities.
“I think there has been a very strong support for the defense of Taiwan over the last four years of President Trump, primarily through various steps he has taken through his advisers,” Goldstein said.
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In October, when asked if he would protect Taiwan from a Chinese invasion, President Trump told the Wall Street Journal: “There's no need to, because he respects me and thinks I'm crazy.'' Because I know that.''
Asked how he would persuade Mr. Xi to avoid such an invasion, Trump said: “If you go to Taiwan, you say, “I'm sorry for doing this, and I'm going to impose taxes, I mean tariffs.'''' I would say,” he answered with 150. % to 200%. ”
He may even ban trade between the two countries.
On Monday, October 14th, a Chinese Coast Guard ship passed near the coast of Taiwan's Matsu Islands. (Taiwan Coast Guard Bureau/AP News)
He highly praised his relationship with Mr. Xi. “I had a very strong relationship with him. In fact, he was a very good person. I don't want to say friends. I don't want to do something stupid like, 'He was my friend.' , I got along really well with him. He stayed with me at Mar-a-Lago, so we got to know each other. He's a very intense person.”
The United States regularly sends military equipment to Taiwan, and that is expected to continue into the next administration. Biden administration takes office in October Approves $2 billion arms sale Including radar systems and three nationally advanced surface-to-air missile systems.
Rapidly improving drone capabilities could allow the United States to support an invasion of Taiwan without sending troops to the region.
Admiral Samuel Paparo, commander of the US Indo-Pacific Command, said: “I want to use a number of sensitive capabilities to turn the Taiwan Strait into an uninhabited hellscape.'' said The Washington Post at the International Institute for Strategic Studies' Shangri-La Dialogue Summit.
In doing so, he said: “You can make their lives absolutely miserable for a month. That will buy you time to do all the rest.”
However, there are hopes among restraint advocates that President Trump will focus on an economic war with China rather than the military. President Trump has threatened to impose a 60% tariff on Chinese goods.
The Taiwanese Navy's Guanghua VI-class missile boat moves through Taiwan's Keelung Port on Monday, October 14th. (Reuters/Tiron Siu)
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“His approach to China is going to be very tough economically,” Goldstein said. ”However, I hope that diplomatic and military tensions will be eased.”
“We have no such alliance with Taiwan,” Goldstein continued. “We're allied with Japan. And we're allied with the Philippines. We might want to double down on our allies' security. … The Taiwan issue is a powder keg, it's extremely dangerous. And here we have a very You should act carefully.”
The United States has long endorsed a “one China” policy, pursued a policy of strategic ambiguity, and refused to say whether it would defend Taiwan in all-out war.
Mr. Biden seems to want to declare that he will protect Taiwan from China. His staff was forced to retract a series of off-the-cuff statements that appeared to undermine strategic ambiguity.
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President: “The United States stands up for peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait.'' said at West Point in May. He pointedly added, “I remain willing to use force as necessary to protect our country, our allies, and our core interests.”
