Members of Congress were briefed Wednesday on the potential consequences if the United States goes to war with China over Taiwan within the next two years, as the world's superpowers increase encroachment on America's allies. .
China's defense industrial base is operating on a “wartime posture” and currently has 230 times the shipbuilding capacity of the United States, making an invasion of Taiwan a likely outcome.
U.S. military analysts predict that by 2027, China will be fully equipped for a military invasion of Taiwan. And the United States has long maintained a policy of refusing to say whether it would participate in the island's defense under such a scenario.
But under a war exercise conducted 25 times by the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) and presented to members of the House Select Committee on China, the alliance between the United States, Taiwan, and Japan could defeat an amphibious invasion by China and destroy Taiwan. maintained autonomy. , However, this does not mean that there will be no significant losses.
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During the simulation, casualties on both sides were high, with more than 10,000 casualties, and the United States lost 10-20 warships, 2 aircraft carriers, 200-400 fighter jets, and more than 3,000 people in three weeks of fighting. of soldiers died.
China lost 90% of its amphibious fleet, 52 major surface warships, and 160 fighter jets.
“Today's tabletop exercise will simulate what would happen in a worst-case scenario of conflict with China and learn how to work together in a bipartisan manner to ensure America is ready to once again become an weapon of democracy. “The United States and our allies must have the military means to defeat our adversaries whenever and wherever called upon,” committee chairman Rep. John Moolener (R-Mich.) told Fox News Digital. .
A Chinese Coast Guard vessel patrols the disputed Scarborough Shoal. (Castro/file photo)
The report highlights four key points: 1) Taiwan must “hold the line” with a ground invasion, and 2) there is no “Ukraine” model in which the United States can escalate gradually. A decision must be made immediately whether to defend Taiwan, 3) military operations must be conducted through Japan, and 4) the United States must immediately increase its supply of anti-ship missiles.
The main point of the report is that although China chose “D-Day,” Taiwan and its defenders must be ready at all times. This war game assumed that China's invasion would begin in 2026.
This scenario is based on the assumption that the United States under President-elect Trump will defend Taiwan, but no such promise has been made. It is unclear what President Trump would do under such a scenario, but he believes Taiwan would need to pay to provide defense aid to the United States.
Japan would be a key ally of the United States and Taiwan in such a fight, as South Korea does not allow the United States to launch combat missions from its territory. CSIS recommends that diplomatic relations between Japan and the United States be deepened immediately.
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“It would certainly be very helpful if South Korea was on a par with us,” said Matthew Cancian, a researcher at the Naval War College and lead author of the project. The United States is likely to move two of the four squadrons stationed in South Korea to support the fight against China over Taiwan.
However, as the presenters warned, North Korea could try to take advantage of the situation and invade the south, especially after gaining operational experience in the Ukraine war with Russia.
The exercise also points out that unlike US aid to Ukraine, which passes through NATO territory before arriving on site, the US cannot provide weapons to Taiwan without sending US troops, meaning China's He also argued that vehicle missiles and anti-aircraft missiles would pose a threat to all transport vessels. The road to the island.
“The U.S. military would need to be directly involved,” Cancian said. “There is no way to achieve rejection of the occupation of Taiwan while still protecting the safety of U.S. forces.”
And if the United States comes to Taiwan's defense, China will have no time to waste, since it is geographically much closer than the US military. “What if the United States were not in the fight for two weeks?” [after an invasion]it's already too late. Kian will already have too strong a foothold,” Cancian said.
China's ground-attack and anti-ship missiles will pose the greatest threat in the theater. Harpoons and coastal defense cruise missiles are “absolutely essential” to Taiwan's defense, according to the wargame exercise.
According to the exercise, China outperforms the United States in aircraft, ships, and missiles, and to prevent China from provoking a war over Taiwan, the United States has reduced production of key munitions, according to the military game. Needs immediate reinforcement.
The United States currently has about 440 anti-ship missiles in its stockpile, which would be depleted within seven days in a war with China.
China will not want to give up easily, as a defeat on Taiwan could “highly destabilize” the government's legitimacy at home.
The war game also highlights the need for Taiwan's defense budget to focus less on large, expensive ships that China would easily destroy and more on smaller, more survivable ships and submarines. did.
New students participate in military training in Nantong, Jiangsu Province, China. (Xu Peiqin/VCG, via Getty Images)
Chinese naval fleet passes through mine threat area. (Sun Zifa/China News Service via Getty Images)
The United States also needed to focus on arming Taiwan with small ships and cheap munitions, and in most iterations of the war game the United States lost two aircraft carriers and 10 to 20 large surface combatants.
“We need to get their sophisticated technology to fire against our less sophisticated ones,” said Rep. Carlos Gimenez, R-Florida. “They're going to overtake us…We need to wake up.”
The United States and Taiwan must not attack mainland China. This is to avoid the risk of escalation by nuclear-armed states, and because mainland China's air defenses are “too strong.”
After all, such an invasion could happen sooner or not at all.
Gen. Samuel Paparo, head of the U.S. Indo-Pacific Command (INDOPACOM), recently said he believes the U.S. would make a cross-Strait invasion by China “extremely difficult.”
Given that China is the world's most capable potential adversary, the U.S. military has for years shifted its focus from the Middle East to the Indo-Pacific, what Paparo describes as the “most stressful theater of war.”
According to Chinese policy, the Chinese Communist Party will invade if Taiwan declares independence from China, if a third country intervenes in the conflict, or if the Chinese government declares that “unification is irreversible by any means.'' This is limited to cases in which it is determined that it was not possible.
Although the United States has no formal alliance with Taiwan, China has violated the air and sea territory of Japan and the Philippines, two allies of the United States in the Pacific.
Paparo said he saw “the most rehearsals and the most joint exercises.” China “I've watched my entire career as an observer,” he said over the summer.
“This included 152 vessels at sea on any given day,” Paparo added.
China's navy is the largest in the world, with more than 370 ships and submarines. U.S. combat power includes 295 ships, including 11 active-duty aircraft carriers.
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“This was the largest rehearsal we have seen in the PLA's upward trajectory.” [People’s Liberation Army] Modernization,” Paparo said, referring to the Chinese military.
