New York City Mayoral Candidate Zohran Mamdani’s Position in Recent Polls
Many voters in New York City are reportedly uneasy with the socialist Democratic candidate Zohran Mamdani due to his previous anti-political views. Yet, he still stands out as a strong contender against the current mayor.
A recent poll conducted by American Pulse Research & Polling indicates that 36.9% of general election voters are backing Mamdani. Meanwhile, Andrew Cuomo has 24.6% support, Curtis Sliwa, the Republican candidate, has 16.8%, and incumbent Eric Adams is at 11.4%.
Mamdani’s lead over Cuomo has reportedly increased to anywhere from 6 to 12 points since the last poll taken in early July. This shift appears to be linked to Cuomo’s declining popularity following his loss in the Democratic primary.
However, there are indications that if some rivals exit the race, Mamdani could find himself more vulnerable than he currently seems.
Dustin Olson, Lead Pollster, noted, “Zohran Mamdani is still a candidate to beat, but this new investigation also shows he could be defeated, especially when issues of crime and public safety enter the discussion.”
For instance, a significant 58.4% of voters expressed that his past support to reimburse police and abolish the NYPD Strategic Response Group makes them less inclined to vote for him. Many indicated they would prefer “other candidates” over Mamdani due to these controversial stances.
Interestingly, Mamdani now claims he hasn’t significantly supported police funding.
Almost half of the voters—45%—felt that his policies are too extreme. Yet, there’s a more complicated picture for Cuomo and Adams, who carry considerable political baggage, making them even less favorable than Mamdani.
Specifically, 55% of voters viewed Cuomo unfavorably, 65% had a negative impression of Adams, and 45% expressed discontent with Sliwa.
While Mamdani is the only candidate to enjoy a modest uptick in favorability (with a shift from 43.6% to 47.8%), he should remain cautious. Attack ads and increased scrutiny are expected as the election approaches.
Notably, a significant 68.7% of voters said they’re unlikely to support Adams, especially after recent legal troubles, while 53% share negative sentiments towards Cuomo due to his approval of the cashless bail law.
Despite this, Mamdani’s support remains mild compared to that of Cuomo and Adams, leading some voters to believe that their popularity may be exaggerated.
As for candidate positioning, Mamdani and Sliwa would likely appear more prominently on ballots, which could provide them an edge over Cuomo and Adams, who may be farther down the line for independent voters.
If either Adams or Sliwa were to withdraw, Cuomo might become a more serious contender against Mamdani. In a hypothetical scenario without Sliwa, Mamdani stands at 38.3% compared to Cuomo’s 32.3% and Adams’ 20.4%. If Adams were out, Mamdani still leads at 38.5% to Cuomo’s 30.3% and Sliwa’s 23%.
Mamdani has received substantial support among Democrats, showcasing 48% in favor within the poll. If he can further rally Democratic voters, his numbers could rise more significantly.
On the flip side, Sliwa has the backing of 53% of Republicans, and a consolidation of their support could bolster his standing.
American Pulse Research & Polling engaged with 638 voters between August 14-19 through various means, including live calls and online panels, with a margin of error of plus or minus 3.9 percentage points.
Additionally, a study by Gotham Polling & Analytics/AARP released recently also highlighted Mamdani maintaining a double-digit lead, albeit with signs of growing discontent among some voters.
