Two years after the tragic Hamas attack on Israel on October 7, 2023, President Trump’s efforts towards peace in Gaza seem more achievable.
This week, officials from Israel and Hamas engaged in serious indirect talks in Sharm el-Sheikh, a resort town located on Egypt’s Sinai Peninsula.
Trump has been applying substantial pressure on Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, leveraging relationships with Arab and Muslim leaders to encourage Hamas to agree to a ceasefire and free hostages. The global call for an end to the conflict is quite strong.
For Netanyahu, this initiative might represent the quickest way to secure the release of 20 live hostages and retrieve 28 deceased individuals without proceeding with extensive military operations.
The exact objectives of Hamas remain somewhat murky, particularly since many of its leaders have been taken out. Trump has suggested options for pardons or asylum in exchange for agreeing to a comprehensive peace plan.
Trump expressed optimism that negotiations could wrap up soon, indicating that his team would be making important announcements and finalizing details related to a potential prisoner exchange.
After meeting with reporters, Trump remarked that Netanyahu was “very positive” about the ongoing deal, noting that Hamas had been “great” in negotiations. He seemed hopeful, suggesting they might actually reach a lasting agreement.
“I feel hopeful.”
A ceasefire would represent a crucial pause in hostilities—something that hasn’t taken place since March. A previous ceasefire collapsed due to mutual accusations of violations, stalling further discussions on a pathway to peace.
“Israelis usually don’t express optimism easily,” remarked Yossi Klein Halevi from the Shalom Hartman Institute in Jerusalem. “But I realized today, for the first time since October 7th, I can breathe. That feels significant.”
Trump has been pushing for negotiations, telling Israel to pause military actions after Hamas responded to his peace proposal. He had previously urged Israeli leaders to consider his peace plan during a White House meeting late last month.
“The difference now is the level of American commitment,” said Dennis Ross, a veteran negotiator, referring to Trump’s willingness to exert pressure on both Hamas and Netanyahu. “There’s a sense of momentum that feels new.”
Dana Stoll, former deputy defense secretary for the Middle East under Biden, acknowledged Trump’s inclusion of Turkey alongside Qatar and Egypt in these discussions. “They’ve been longstanding hosts, and their involvement can encourage cooperation with Hamas,” she noted.
Trump addressed this pressure strategy in his remarks on Monday, recognizing Turkish President Erdoğan’s significant efforts in facilitating the deal and noting Hamas’s respect for leaders in Qatar and the UAE.
“Same old fixation point”
While Trump welcomed Hamas’s willingness to negotiate for lasting peace, some diplomats see the group employing its usual tactics to sustain its survival.
“Hamas seems to be reverting to familiar sticking points,” Stoll pointed out. “There’s a conditional response, but it always comes back to the nitty-gritty of implementation.”
Initially, Hamas accepted Trump’s proposal without explicitly agreeing to forfeit its weapons or withdraw from political engagement in a future Palestinian government.
It’s understandable; they’re fighting for their existence, which means they might not want to relinquish arms or territory.
Nevertheless, Hamas appears motivated to negotiate, aiming for Israel to halt military operations. Trump’s plan includes securing the release of 250 Palestinians in Israeli prisons, along with another 1,700 detained since October 7.
A senior Hamas official emphasized their eagerness to reach a settlement to stop the war and initiate the prisoner exchange process as conditions permit.
As Trump asked Israeli forces to minimize military actions following his directives, Egyptian negotiators are working to clarify the ceasefire’s terms.
The White House refrained from setting a firm deadline for an agreement, despite Trump previously suggesting Hamas face dire consequences if they did not accept his 20-point plan by Sunday.
Many “unseen”
Getting a commitment to both a ceasefire and hostage agreement is a significant first step, but it’s just the beginning of what could be exceedingly challenging diplomatic negotiations.
“My concern is that Hamas might hold sway indirectly,” said Ahmed Foad Al-Khatib from the Atlantic Council. “They could cling to arms to maintain control in parts of Gaza, attempting to influence governance structures.”
Al-Khatib highlighted the risk of a low-intensity civil conflict emerging, where militias and clans compete for territory as a new government assumes power.
Another noteworthy question is how Trump plans to supervise his 20-point peace proposal, which proposes an “International Stabilization Force” to replace Israeli troops in Gaza, dismantling Hamas’s military infrastructure, and rebuilding Gaza with a government recognized as legitimate by its residents.
While expectations for Trump’s effectiveness in navigating these negotiations are low, the complexities remain to be seen, as noted by seasoned diplomats.
Senator Lindsey Graham, initially critical of Hamas’s response, changed his views after Trump instructed Israel to scale back its military actions in Gaza, asserting that releasing hostages should come first before negotiating other aspects of the peace plan.
